Hog Heaven

38 Sacks: Recapping the negative plays taken by the 2008 Redskins

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:35:00 +0000

These notes come mostly from my own season collection, but with help from the Football Outsiders Gamecharting Project (2008).

(Sack #; Player(s) who made sack; How the offense was to blame)

Jason Campbell was sacked 38 times in 2008. This is a play-by-play recap of exactly how they occured.

1) Giants DE Justin Tuck; Jason Campbell simply ran outside his protection against a basic 4 man rush.

2) Saints LB C. Reis; this was a straight scramble by Campbell, and the LB who had zone coverage read it, and went to make the tackle behind the LOS, technically a sack

3) Saints DE Will Smith; Against a blitz, Thomas pulls across the formation off of play action and whiffs on his block of Smith.

4) Cardinals LB Karlos Dansby; the Cards come with 6-man pressure, but the Redskins have enough to pick it up. Confusion in the middle of the line lets two guys through, and Dansby was the second man up the middle.

5) Cardinals DL Bertrand Berry; Casey Rabach steps on the foot of Jason Campbell, taking him down. Berry gets the touch, and the easiest sack of his 12 year career. Fluke sack.

6) Cowboys DE Chris Canty; on third down, the Cowboys come with only four against six Redskin blockers, but Canty gets inside of Samuels, who might have been trying to pass him off to Kendall. Either way, Kendall was fully expecting Samuels to handle this one easily. Good move by Canty.

7) Cowboys DE DeMarcus Ware; the very next third down, Ware simply beats Samuels around the edge and gets on Campbell quickly.

8) Eagles S Brian Dawkins; this was a Jim Johnson specialty zone blitz that totally broke down the Redskins protection and Dawkins got on Campbell completely unblocked. Even a chip would have given Campbell enough time to get rid of this ball.

9) Rams CB Ricky Manning; it was a simple fire from a nickelback who timed the play very well (that part is partially on Campbell's snap count variance -- or lack thereof), but we had a down block from the tackle, and the back went out, and Campbell had no prayer of getting this third down pass off.

9a) Rams DT Adam Carriker; Samuels was hurt, so Jason Fabini was at LT on this play (Heyer inactive). DE Chris Long ran right around him forcing Campbell up in the pocket, and Carriker slipped inside of R. Thomas forcing a fumble which was recovered by Pete Kendall, then stripped and returned for a decisive touchdown by OJ Atogwe. *OFFICIALLY RULED PASS COMPLETED (to Kendall, which would have been a penalty)*. This can be known as "the 39th sack.

10) Rams DE Victor Adeyanju; the Rams come with four, and a simple stunt by Adeyanju as he runs right past Casey Rabach who whiffs.

11) Rams DE Leonard Little; With only a four man rush, Little beat Jon Jansen to the corner and sacked Campbell on a third and short passing play.

12) Rams LB Pisa Tinoisamoa; the Rams came with a six man blitz against a normal five man front for the Redskins, and Campbell either thought the Redskins had it picked up or simply miscounted, and was forced to eat the ball.

13) Browns NT Shaun Rogers, Browns LB D'Qwell Jackson; Rogers just engulfed Casey Rabach, and then some good coverage downfield led to Campbell holding onto the ball for too long.

14) Lions DE Clifford Avril; beat LT Heyer and got to Jason Campbell before the Redskins routes developed downfield. Campbell was stripped of the ball and it was recovered by Detroit. Never saw it coming.

15) Lions DE Dewayne White, Lions DL Cory Redding; this was not a good series for Jon Jansen. On this play, no one to either side of Pete Kendall blocked anyone, either. Campbell spent a few seconds jumping around in the pocket before going down. Jansen was called for holding two plays later, getting the Redskins in a 2nd and 27. It goes without saying that the Redskins CONVERTED that into a first down, and would get a field goal to end the half, but man, was this protection piss poor w/o Samuels.

16) Lions DE Dewayne White; Dewayne White may not ever be an elite end in this league, but he's going to beat Stephon Heyer there for sure. This strip-sack on Campbell should have been a turnover, but the Lions botched the recovery and the Skins would get on it. Luckily, Suisham nailed the longer field goal to make it an 8 point game.

17) Steelers DL Nick Eason; Technically a sack, though Campbell got back to the line of scrimmage on his scramble. The Redskins picked up this 5 man rush, but the Steelers were able to collapse the pocket and force Campbell to step up and run, then drag him down. Coverage sack.

18) Steelers LB James Farrior, Steelers LB James Harrison; these guys came from opposite sides, while Harrison just crushed Rock Cartwright back into the QB, Farrior knocked Jansen off balance and beat him quickly. The Redskins had properly picked up this blitz, they just got owned at the point of attack.

19) Steelers LB James Harrison; this time, Farrior comes from right over center on a delay to chase Jason Campbell from the pocket to his right, and as he's trying to find someone downfield, Harrison chases him down from the backside and records a coverage sack, of sorts.

20) Steelers LB Lamarr Woodley; ran around Jon Jansen, who certainly didn't have his best effort in this game. He was beaten by some very good pass rushers...and also by everybody else.

21) Steelers LB Lamarr Woodley; okay so the first half wasn't a total disaster, but it was this play early in the third quarter that suggested the Redskins were overmatched. Todd Yoder went to cut Woodley, who gave him a funny look as he didn't flip over him and lose his balance, then high-stepped him, and ran basically untouched to Jason Campbell. Yoder probably should not have played another down the rest of the season after this effort, but ended up keeping Fred Davis off the field for another 5 weeks.

22) Steelers DE Aaron Smith; this was a protection breakdown caused by Woodley. He stunted inside, and got about three guys to move at him, and also causing the offensive line to lose Aaron Smith in the protection. Campbell had some time, but no one really open because Portis had stayed in against only 4 men on the rush. Smith got free for this sack, but it would have been anyone else a second later.

23) Steelers LB Lawrence Timmons; the Redskins were empty backfield on this play, and Lebeau comes with a zone blitz overload, and then Samuels blocks down for some reason on Aaron Smith, while two Steelers come unblocked off the left side of our formation. Timmons got there first.

24) Cowboys NT Jay Ratliff; Got one-on-one against Casey Rabach, which is about the easiest sack he had this year. Campbell had no chance.

25) Cowboys LB DeMarcus Ware; Ware really, really made Samuels look bad on this play. When it was all said and done, Samuels was in the grass, and Ware had put Campbell there as well.

26) Cowboys NT Jay Ratliff; This time, he went one on one against Randy Thomas, and got Thomas to take a wrong snap before coming up the middle to sack Jason Campbell.

27) Seahawks DE Darryl Tapp; Todd Yoder flat out blew this block. He blew it so badly that Samuels was caught in the area blocking no one because he couldn't get to Tapp without running into Campbell. Yeah, Yoder effectively neutralized his own LT, AND gave up the quickest route to the QB.

28) Seahawks LB Julian Peterson; scratched and clawed to earn a typical coverage sack here. 4 man rush against 6 in protection.

29) Giants DT Barry Cofield; Cofield beat Casey Rabach right up the middle off of the snap and hit Campbell hard enough to jar the ball free. It was recovered by the Redskins, thankfully.

30) Giants DE Justin Tuck; Tuck with his token sack against Jason Campbell. This was one play where Jansen didn't get any help, but he didn't really blow the block either. Tuck is just so explosive that as soon as the timing of this play was thrown off, the next thing you knew, Campbell was down, but moving towards the line of scrimmage in doing so so no yards lost.

31) Giants DE Renaldo Wynn; Rabach committed a snap infraction which went uncalled. It allowed Wynn to get three steps up the field before Jansen got out of his stance, and he would finish the job.

32) Giants DE Justin Tuck; Looped around for the mismatch on Rabach, beat him quickly, and dispensed of Campbell about 11 yards in the backfield. The fact that Rabach was still allowed to play the rest of the season really speaks to the amount of frustration for this unit.

33) Ravens LB Ray Lewis; The Ravens brought the house on this play and Lewis got through untouched. Part of this was a scheme sack from Rex Ryan, the rest was on Campbell not being able to go "hot" because of the down (3rd) and distance (13).

34) Ravens LB Terrell Suggs; The infamous Justin Geisinger sack.

35) Eagles DE Victor Abimiri; The Eagles brought a 6 man blitz, and the Redskins should have been able to pick it up with the six guys they had in there, but Abimiri came totally untouched after Portis had to pick between two unblocked guys. Rabach is double teaming instead of sorting, he's just a mess. This would be different if Campbell was expecting quick pressure in a 6 v 6 situation, but he's expecting them to block it correctly. Forced fumble recovered by Heyer.

36) Eagles DE Darren Howard; Howard's not a pass rusher, and Fabini isn't a tackle. Of course, at this point in the season, we were just lucky that Juqua Parker wasn't seeing many snaps. That guy owns the Redskins.

37) Eagles DE Trent Cole; Really killed the momentum on this drive here. Pushed Heyer back, then tossed him and got to Campbell while he was stepping up to make a play. Forced the drive to fizzle out, it was really moving until this point.

38) 49ers DE Justin Smith; gets his turn to run through Rabach, and Campbell also made this sack worse than it initially would have been by trying to run backwards for about five yards. There's playmaker/gunslinger in him yet.

Recap

Let's total up the reasons.

Blown Block - Samuels: 3
Blown Block - Kendall: 1
Blown Block - Rabach: 6
Snap Infraction - Rabach: 1
Blown Block - Thomas: 3
Blown Block - Jansen: 4
Blown Block - Heyer: 4
Blown Block - Fabini: 2
Blown Block - Geisinger: 1
Blown Block - Yoder: 2
Blown Block - RBs: 1
Untouched Rusher - Outschemed: 6
Untouched Rusher - Miscommunication: 7
Coverage Sack: 6
Fault of Quarterback: 3
Fluke: 1

The fact that Rabach is a really bad signal caller in the middle of that line is well documented, and possibly evidenced by the high miscommunication total, but more often than not, the Redskins were either outschemed or well covered. Rabach did not allow a single sack in the 4-1 start; 5 of his 6 blown blocks (not to mention the snap infraction) came in the 2-6 finish.

The thing is, that the communication improved over the course of the year. Less sacks were marked as communication errors in the second half of the year than the first, and better communication was necessary to play those defenses. However, as the Redskins did a better job getting bodies on people, they did a worse job blocking them.

Consequently, the numbers bare out that the Redskins OL was not markedly worse during the 2-6 finish than they were in the middle weeks when the team was 3-3 between Weeks 6 and 12. Their errors were simply more obvious. The coverage sacks were evenly dispersed, and Campbell took fewer sacks in which he was at fault in the second half than the first.

Finally, if we were to "cap" the Steelers sacks at 3 (instead of the seven they got), the Redskins did not give up more sacks in the second eight games then they did in the first eight.

We can conclude that the Redskins offensive line played it's best football during the 4-1 start, but until I do a study on QB hits and QB hurries, the sack numbers are inconclusive at best as a reason for why the level of play declined after Week 5. I'll hopefully have that analysis up by the end of the week.

Building the 53 man Roster

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 21:12:35 +0000

Now that the Redskins have heeded my advice and shut down the player acquisition machine--at least for the time being--it's time to look ahead to the short term future, and try to pinpoint the 53 man roster.

Here's what I have my SkinsBucks on, and below, you can use the comments section to correct me or to start from scratch as you build your own Redskins team.

Quarterbacks (3): Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Colt Brennan

Running backs (3): Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright

Fullbacks (2): Mike Sellers, Eddie Williams

So far, so simple.

Wide Receivers (6): Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle El, Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, Roydell Williams, Trent Shelton

Tight Ends (2): Chris Cooley, Fred Davis

Offensive Tackles (3): Chris Samuels, Stephon Heyer, Mike Williams

Guards (4): Derrick Dockery, Randy Thomas, Chad Rinehart, Devin Clark

Centers (2): Casey Rabach, Edwin Williams

Total Offense = 25
Notable releases: G/T Jeremy Bridges, WR Marko Mitchell (PS), TE Todd Yoder

Defensive Ends (5): Phillip Daniels, Andre Carter, Lorenzo Alexander, Rob Jackson, Alex Buzbee

Defensive Tackles (4): Albert Haynesworth, Corneilus Griffin, Anthony Montgomery, Kedric Golston

Linebackers (7): Rocky McIntosh, London Fletcher, Brian Orakpo*, HB Blades, Alfred Fincher, Cody Glenn, Robert Henson

Cornerbacks (5): Carlos Rogers, DeAngelo Hall, Fred Smoot, Justin Tryon, Kevin Barnes

Safeties (4): LaRon Landry, Chris Horton, Kareem Moore, Reed Doughty

Total Defense = 25
Notable Releases: DE Renaldo Wynn, CB Byron Westbrook

Specialists (3): Shaun Suisham, Hunter Smith, and Ethan Albright

The Redskins Featured on MVN Outsider

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:58:00 +0000

Today, NFL Outsider takes it's NFL Top 10 series over to Redskins Park, and looks in at the 10 most valuable Washington Redskins.

The article was penned by yours truly.

Go take a look at it this morning. In the words of one Anthony Brown, we'll be here when you get back.

The Importance of Fred Davis, and who he Best Compares to

Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:15:00 +0000

If the quality of our defense this year hinges on the ability of young, yet embattled CB DeAngelo Hall, then the key to the Redskins offense this year is not a member of the much-criticized offensive line, it's second year Tight End Fred Davis.

In doing our player expectation projections last week, it was obvious that Davis' spot on the chart is the one area where there's really no one else to pick up the slack if he falters. If Malcolm Kelly is too hurt to play, there's Devin Thomas, or even Roydell Williams. If Santana Moss can't dominate, his production can conceivably be spread amongst the rest of the receivers, and Campbell can still hit his numbers.

Well, if Davis isn't one of the most productive second TEs in the league, then that's coming straight out of Jason Campbell's production. This isn't to say that the entire receiver corps doesn't also need to improve from last year to help Campbell--clearly they do--but Davis himself is the backup number one possession target, and there's no one behind him.

The bar on Davis has been set at 3 receiving TDs, and 320 receiving yards. However, this is merely a personal gut feeling that may detract from the greater point; Davis isn't competing against Chris Cooley, he's competing with him. Between them, the Redskins need to get 100 receptions and 1,000 yards of production, the golden number that suggests the passing offense is where it needs to be at the end of the regular season.

That sounds like a lot, but we can look at other recent TD duos who have hit that total, and then we will wrap up by looking at the effect of the tight ends on their total offense.

Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark, 2008 Chicago Bears
These guys were both brought in with the idea of complementing one another, and though neither one had a great year individually, they combined for 941 yards and 6 TDs. This is a bare minimum expectation for the Cooley/Davis duo this year.

Tony Sheffler and Daniel Graham, 2008 Denver Broncos
Sheffler is an excellent player, as good a tight end as anyone in the AFC, including Antonio Gates. His 16.1 yard average brings a vertical element to the offense that few tight ends do, including Chris Cooley, so this comparison isn't particularly transferrable to the Redskins.

Graham though, is on a 5-year contract worth 30 million dollars, solely to be a second TE. So far, so good though for the Broncos. Graham is catching 64% of passes thrown in his direction, he's averaging 28 catches a year since coming over to the Broncos, and he's averaging 3 TD's a year. All while being one of the stronger blocking TEs around. Hey, that's what we want from Fred Davis! Well, we want that at a small fraction of the price.

Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett, 2008 Dallas Cowboys
Hey, we play these guys! Witten is the prototype of the ideal NFL TE today, but Bennett was taken a few picks after Fred Davis last year, and he's the reigning "best 2nd TE in the NFL" from a year ago. All that really did was prove that Vinny was onto something when he took Davis in the 2nd round with a previously established TE. Or that Jerry Jones is both 1) crazy, and 2) lucky. Then that wouldn't say anything for Vinny.

Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler, 2008 Tennessee Titans
Scaife played under the RFA tender last year, and he was good enough to earn the franchise tag last year, obviously, the guy has number one TE stuff. Think of Crumpler as Daniel Graham without all the hoopla, because public majority opinion appears to be that Michael Vick created him, not the other way around. Crumpler was also significantly less productive than the rest of the No. 2 TEs, so Davis should complement Cooley better than Crumpler complements Scaife.

Dallas Clark and Ben Utecht, 2007 Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Clark is a close Cooley comparable, but of course the Colts ask him to play a very different game than the Redskins ask of Cooley, and Clark tends to compile stronger numbers on a yearly basis than Cooley, despite being a similar player. That's fine, the difference is in the identity of the organizations. Ben Utecht was seen as highly replaceable talent after his notable 2007 season, so the Colts let him walk uncompensated to the Bengals as an RFA. Revisionist history proved the Colts correct on the replaceability of Utecht, but also unable to actually find a suitable replacement in their own offense.

Tony Sheffler and Daniel Graham, 2007 Denver Broncos
These guys, again? Maybe I should have renamed this article, "Create your Own Jay Cutler." Jason Campbell already has the proper initials, and a similar statistical profile according to QB rating. Now, all he needs are the production from the tight ends.

Kellen Winslow Jr. and Steve Heiden, 2006 Cleveland Browns
Winslow did not play in 2005, with a bout of "motorcycle stupidity", so his effective NFL debut saw him team up with one of the league's better blockers to become part of a dynamic tight end duo. Winslow by and far led the pack, and would take his game to new heights in 2007, but this year he would split the credit with Heiden. This was before the dynamic TE duo became trendy, and it's clear that their skill sets complemented each others very well.

Chris Cooley and Robert Royal, 2005 Washington Redskins
Who the heck is Robert Royal?

*looks up his stats*

Whoa, this guy is pretty much terrible.

Conclusions

Fred Davis is already better than Robert Royal.

Conclusions, non-Rob Royal Version

The combined record of the 8 teams I listed above with dynamic TE duos comes out to 73-55, a win percentage of .570, between 9-7 and 10-6. This is seemingly all those teams have in common, so clearly, the effect is tangible, if maybe a bit misleading.

But lets take a look at just these offenses, by Off. DVOA (in chronological order): 5.0%, -18.5%, 23.8%, 7.6%, 10.2%, 21.0%, 8.5%, -4.3%. The same data, using only Pass Off. DVOA: 7.9%, -18.0%, 16.7%, 43.2%, 10.2%, 24.2%, 8.3%, -2.4%. The outliers are the 2007 Colts and 2008 Broncos on the high end, and the 2006 Browns on the low end.

The average offense with a dynamic TE duo--once the outliers are pulled--averages 5.4% better than average in offensive DVOA, and 8.1% better than average in Pass Offense DVOA.

It doesn't take a numbers breakdown to suggest that teams with two valuable TEs are, on the average, better offenses than without them over the past four years. Clearly, the fact that a Fred Davis breakout would help the Redskins offense is pretty indisputable. But I hope I've shown just how much of an effect it makes.

All the quarterbacks that threw to these TE duos, which includes: Mark Brunell, Charlie Frye, Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler, Kerry Collins, Kyle Orton, and Tony Romo, all of them except Manning and Romo enjoyed the best seasons of their career with those respective franchises in the year which they had a TE duo. There were some extenuating circumstances around Romo, injury and mostly that his WRs were terrible, and Manning had a great year in 2007, just not quite as great by Manning standards. But the correlation is clear that when a QB has two TEs that he can trust, he does disproportionately better than when he does not.

Setting Player Expectations for the 2009 Redskins Offense

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 23:15:00 +0000

Yesterday, I began to set goals for individuals in terms of helping the Redskins offense reach top-of-the league status. Today, we need to look at the total production the team will need, and the means to that end.

The assumption with field goal kicking is that Shaun Suisham needs to be able to hit 75% of his attempts, subject to adjust based on the average difficulty of a kick.

Total Offense

The Redskins need to score just more than 2 TDs per game, and at least 2 FGs per game.

GOAL: 34 TDs, 42 FG attempts

Touchdown Production

The mark for Jason Campbell is going to be 23 total touchdowns. For this exercise, that breakdown is going to be 23 passing TDs, and 0 rushing TDs. Rushing TDs by Campbell will count towards his total.

For Clinton Portis, we'll stick with the 9 rushing TDs set yesterday, and we'll give Ladell Betts the remaining 2.

GOAL: 23 passing TDs, 11 rushing TDs

Receiving TDs

This is a little bit more tricky. Let's assume that the touchdown receptions will be split evenly between the Tight Ends and the Receivers. Cooley should lead the field, but if Moss is going to bring the big play element back this year, he needs to lead the wide receivers by a good margin. I think Fred Davis needs to be third on the team in receiving TDs this year. That's his number one responsibility.

As for the remaining 7 TDs or so, I'll project multiple TDs from Randle El and Malcolm Kelly and Mike Sellers. Chances are, Portis will get a TD reception just by being around the ball.

Chris Cooley: 7 TDs
Santana Moss: 6 TDs
Fred Davis: 3 TDs
Antwaan Randle El: 2 TDs
Malcolm Kelly: 2 TDs
Mike Sellers: 2 TDs
Clinton Portis: 1 TD

Passing Yardage

If Campbell attempts the same amount of passes last year, but improves his Y/A figure by 1.0 yards, that will add 500 yards to his season total. That gives him a total of 3,500 yards. We'll throw in another 40 passing yards for Antwaan Randle El successful passes.

GOAL: 3,540 passing yards

For all those yards, someone has to be on the receiving end of them. If Santana Moss does in fact provide 6 TDs worth of production, that's going to mean another 1,000 yard season. I'll set his mark at 1,150. Between Chris Cooley and Fred Davis, we set that goal at 1,000 yards. Cooley is going to drop some, but Davis will pick up the slack. Our No. 2 and 3 receivers need to combine for 900 yards. We'll save 300 yards for the backs, and the remainder goes to the 4th through 6th receivers.

Santana Moss: 1,150 yards
Chris Cooley: 680 yards
Malcolm Kelly: 475 yards
Antwaan Randle El: 415 yards
Fred Davis: 320 yards
Ladell Betts: 170 yards
Clinton Portis: 140 yards
Devin Thomas: 120 yards
Mike Sellers: 70 yards

Rushing Yardage

Clinton Portis needs to be held under 300 carries this year. In the regular season at least. That means that Ladell Betts will get to push 150 carries this year if he's healthy all year. There will be other runners in the mix as well, but we'll only project for Betts and Portis. Portis needs to average around last year's 4.2, whereas Betts has 3.9 as a goal for him.

GOAL: 1,850 rushing yards

Clinton Portis: 1,200 rushing yards
Ladell Betts: 550 rushing yards
Mike Sellers: 50 rushing yards

So, in summary, we'll link to this post throughout the season to see how individual players are doing relative to how we need them to play.

Hog Heaven Projection Table

PLAYER	Pass Yd	Rush TD	Rush Yd	Rec TD	Rec Yd
Jason Campbell	3,500	-	-	-	-
Clinton Portis	-	9	1,200	1	140
Ladell Betts	-	2	550	-	170
Santana Moss	-	-	-	6	1,150
Antwaan Randle El	40	-	25	2	415
Malcolm Kelly	-	-	-	2	475
Devin Thomas	-	-	25	0	120
Chris Cooley	-	-	-	7	680
Fred Davis	-	-	-	3	320

Redskin Fans, You're the Reason Albert Haynesworth Came to Washington

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 20:13:20 +0000

Albert Haynesworth would have had $20 million more if he signed an offer by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. So why pass on the big(ger) bucks to come to Washington?

According to Haynesworth during an interview on Sirius NFL Network and reported by ProFootballTalk.com:

"You look at Washington, they've got a lot of the pieces together," Haynesworth said. "They're right there. They're in a huge market. It's one of the largest markets in the world. You've just got a large, huge media outlet and it can be life beyond football. Going to Tampa, I mean, great city.
"Looking at it from the offseason standpoint, I love the water. I love to be out in the sun. It's just awesome, but it would've been like another Nashville. Tampa doesn't have that big market and they don't have a huge fan base like the Washington Redskins do, so I think it was just a choice just to look at it that way."

(Emphasis mine.)

So, Skins fans, we helped Daniel Snyder save $20 million to land Haynesworth. My season ticket rebate should be in the mail any day now.

It's Must or Bust for Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly

Fri, 26 Jun 2009 08:10:00 +0000

OK, so maybe Washington Redskins rookies Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly didn't have the best of seasons in 2008. But, they were rookies after all and second round rookies at that.

So how would they look if you graded them on the curve? We look at their performance compared to the other eight wide receivers selected in the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft. The numbers are not encouraging.

Second round receivers averaged 27 receptions for 328 yards and 1.4 touchdowns. The group averaged 12 yards per catch.

Thomas and Kelly caught 15 and six passes, respectively. Thomas gained 120 yards. Kelly only 18. Neither player is credited with a touchdown and neither averaged as much as 10 yards per catch.

Five wide receivers were selected in the third round of the 2008 Draft. They averaged 10 receptions, 102 yards, for 9.9 yards per catch. As a group, the third rounders delivered a single touchdown reception.

The average for the second rounders was boosted by Donnie Avery (Rams), DeSean Jackson (Eagles) and especially by Eddie Royal (Broncos). Those three combined for 10 of the 14 touchdowns scored by the 2008 second-rounders.

Jackson caught 29 fewer passes than Royal, but nearly the same yards (Jackson 912 yards; Royal 980). Skins fans remember Avery from his 43 yard reception that set up the winning field goal to give the then winless Rams the upset win at FedEx Field.

The Redskins face Avery, Jackson and Royal in 2009.

But wait. There's more.

Avery, Royal and Jackson are under six feet tall. The Redskins selected Kelly and Thomas because of their size.

West Coast receivers like Terrell Owens are over six feet tall. Size and height are prized because WCO receivers run through heavy traffic and must withstand jostling by 240 pound safeties and the occasional linebacker.

Height is supposed to equal ruggedness, again epitomized by Terrell Owens.

Height doesn't seem to hinder Jackson or Royal. Both play on West Coast Offense teams.

The measurables clouded Washington's judgment last season. But, I won't criticize the pick of Thomas and Kelly. Both picks were generally applauded when they were made.

Thomas flew up the draft charts after the Combine. At one point, he was deemed the best raw receiving talent in the draft.

However, Thomas started one glorious season at Michigan State. He was considered a project and 2008 was effectively his college senior season.

Kelly was a three year starter at big school Oklahoma. Three year starter at a big time program is a predictor of pro success. He figured to match the profile of Art Monk.

The Redskins divulged that their scouts questioned Malcolm Kelly's durability (knees) for professional football. But the Skins drafted linebacker Rocky McIntosh in spite of similar concerns. McIntosh is a starter.

To go by the numbers, Thomas is more likely to hit it big this year. He's stamped with big play potential. Kelly's college experience says he has much more to offer--if he consistently gets on the field.

Thomas has been more open in his effort to get better this season. Kelly has been reticent. It's a must-or-bust year for both players and the offense that is counting on them.

One of them has to come up with 40 receptions and 5 touchdowns this year.

PLAYER	TEAM	REC	YARDS	AVE	TDs
Donnie Avery	Rams	53	674	12.7	3
Devin Thomas	Redskins	15	120	8.0	0
Jordy Nelson	Packers	33	366	11.1	2
James Hardy	Bills	9	87	9.7	2
Eddie Royal	Broncos	91	980	10.8	5
DeSean Jackson	Eagles	62	980	14.7	2
Malcolm Kelly	Redskins	3	18	6.0	0
Limas Sweed	Steelers	6	64	10.7	0
Dexter Jackson	Buccaneers	0	0	0	0

Are the Redskins capable of Averaging 21 PPG? (Part Two)

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 23:00:00 +0000

On Tuesday, I beat around the bush for a while before asking the question:

(A)re the Redskins capable of upping their PPG total by 5 points if they get no more help from the coaches, defense, or special teams than in 2008?

We found that the Redskins, in terms of yards gained per drive, fit right into the mold of some average offenses from the 2008 season, including NFC East rivals Dallas and Philadelphia (for most of the year, the Giants offense was far beyond the realm of average, among the league leaders).

Today, the goal is to come up with some sort of answer to the question in the headline of this two part series.

In doing drive stats research for the first part of this article, I realized that the Redskins were not alone in the type of offensive environment that Jim Zorn created that values win probability over points maximization. A surprise playoff team from last year who didn't totally crumble in the month of December appears to have enjoyed the same philosophy. That team: the Miami Dolphins.

If you saw the Ravens dismantle the Dolphins twice last year, you'll know simply from common opponents that the Redskins were at least as good a team as the 11-win Miami team last year. That's not really in doubt. Miami also finished their season playing their worst ball of the season, although not quite at the level that the Redskins were. However, Miami's offense was better than the Redskins offense was for 16 games. By drives, the Dolphins ranked:

9th in yards per
13th in points per
1st in turnovers against
10 in DSR, the percentage of 1st and 10s converted into another 1st and 10

The only NFL QB who was intercepted less frequently than Chad Pennington in 2008 was Jason Campbell. The difference between the Dolphins and the Redskins in drive efficiency was the same as the difference between the Redskins and the:

27th ranked Bears in Yd/Drive
32nd ranked Bengals in Pts/Drive
15th ranked Chiefs in Turnovers/Drive
26th ranked Titans in DSR

The point I'm trying to show here is that the Dolphins were better than the Redskins at their own offensive game last year. Do you want to guess how many PPG the Dolphins averaged last year? You can probably get close:

The 2008 Miami Dolphins averaged 21.6 PPG. They were also the 7th most efficient offense per FO's DVOA metric. The message is clear: if Jim Zorn's philosophy is to maximize win percentage at the expense of points, the Redskins offense needs to produce at the level that the Miami Dolphins did last year in order to be a super bowl contender. You see, the Dolphins were not a super bowl contender last year, but they also did not sport a defense anywhere near as good as the defense the Redskins currently have. However, the Dolphins defense only gave up 19.8 PPG, or almost equal to what the Redskins defense did last year, while ranking just a hair behind them in DVOA. The Redskins defense is going to be much improved this year.

Clearly, the Redskins are capable of averaging 21 PPG. The Dolphins proved that it was possible with limited offensive talent. But let's conclude this analysis by trying to figure out where those additional points will come from:

Jason Campbell needs to add about 500 yards (GOAL: 3,500yd, 20 TDs, 8 INTs) without throwing too many more INTs. If he does this, he can become the 3:1 TD/INT QB the Redskins need.
It's acceptable for Clinton Portis to have some decline, and the offense to improve overall. The key is that he has to convert first downs at the exact same rate he already is. Clinton Portis' YPA fell to 4.2 (GOAL: 4.2 YPA, 9 TDs) after the final 8 games, and we can live with that kind of production. His health is the main thing that we need from him
The Miami Dolphins did not have one receiver match the value of...Antwaan Randle El last season, but that's a deceiving stat because their receiving corps were much better than ours. The key was three different guys who could all convert on third down: Ted Ginn, Greg Camarrillo, and rookie Davone Bess. The Redskins have two guys in Moss and Randle El who can do this, they'll need a third as well. (GOAL: any 3rd receiver; 40 catches, 2 TDs, Catch Rate of 65% or better).
The Tight Ends were the valuable receivers on the Miami roster. Anthony Fasano and David Martin combined to be Chad Pennington's two favorite red zone and third down targets, they combined for more than 60 highly valuable receptions and more than 900 yards with 11 combined TDs. Are you reading this, Fred Davis? (GOAL: Cooley and Davis combined; 100 receptions, 1,000 receving yards, 10 TDs).

Of course, the ability to reach the above numbers is contingent on the offensive line closing the gap between ours and theirs. The Miami OL was not much better at the conclusion of 2007 than was the Redskins OL at the conclusion of last year. They added three parts last year, one of them was former Redskins practice squad player Ike Ndukwe, the other two were FA LG Justin Smiley and the first overall draft pick, OT Jake Long. The Redskins never had the benefit of the first overall pick, and they used the pick they did have on defense. Smiley's performance was mission critical to the Miami offensive line's improvement last year, and the Redskins have a similar addition in Derrick Dockery. The Dolphins OL was otherwise weak in the interior last season, which gives Redskins fans hope that we can have an effective offense with the aging duo of Randy Thomas and Casey Rabach in the middle. As bad as that duo was last year, they weren't worse than what Miami was running out there. To their credit, Miami has since improved on their interior OL, but the key to the Miami pass blocking is with the offensive tackles.

The Redskins might not get great OL play this year. But they passed up obvious oppertunity to improve in the middle of the line for the shot to improve on the outside. By all means, they MUST improve at tackle because that's the only area on the OL they gave themselves a chance to improve. And so the goals of offensive production above become very easy to reach--more likely than not--if the Redskins get acceptable play from their offensive tackles. This is the one position where the Redskins do not have the resources that the Dolphins' offense did to improve. And while the question marks are not quite what they are at the WR position, there's fewer quality options with upside.

So imagine that. After a week's worth of analysis: the Redskins are more than capable of scoring 21 PPG, if only the offensive line pulls it's weight. They have all the other tools, except on the OL where an improvement must be made in pass protection without losing the drive blocking ability in the run game. If Jason Campbell gets remotely adequate pass protection, 21 PPG isn't a pipe dream -- it's a likely outcome. If the pass pro doesn't improve, the Redskins are probably good for 19 PPG, which makes them a borderline playoff team and not a likely threat to win the NFC East (more likely 2nd or 3rd place).

Crazy analysis sometimes arrives at the most logical conclusions.

Are the Redskins capable of Averaging 21 PPG? (Part One)

Tue, 23 Jun 2009 21:55:00 +0000

The most common misconception about the 2008 Washington Redskins is as follows: the team could not score points, even if it wanted to.

By mid-December, when the offensive line featured an aging Pete Kendall, an injured Randy Thomas, and the combination of Stephon Heyer, Casey Rabach, and Jason Fabini around them, it's probably safe to say that they were producing at their maximum potential. But for most of the year, their PPG totals hovered between 15-19, which led to the team finishing with 265 points scored, 15th in the NFC, and 28th in the NFL. This led to rampant speculation about who on the offense was undeserving of their job.

Of course, football teams are not judged by their ability to maximize points any more than they are by their ability to maximize yards, a category in which the Redskins offense performed just fine in. Football teams are judged by their ability to maximize wins. And the responsibility to maximize winning ability falls on the offense, defense, special teams, and coaching staff. There are plenty of means to reach this end. Jim Zorn appears to be of the philosophy that one should NOT maximize their ability to score points, if in fact there is a more direct means to winning a game.

Zorn preached that an offense void of turnovers would help win more games than it would lose, and his preachings show up in the final numbers, as the Redskins had the lowest INT rate in the league, and the 4th lowest turnover rate. This was a great assistance to a defense that allowed only 18.5 PPG.

I'm not sure we can assume that Jim Zorn won't be more flexible with his philosophy if he coaches a team that he thinks can light up the scoreboard next year. But let's go there. Let's assume that in 2009, Jim Zorn will continue to trade in points on the offensive end in for points on the defensive end in the form of limited turnovers, fewer long FG attempts, and not going for it as often on 4th down. And let's say that because of his philosophy, the defense is able to lower it's PPG from 18.5 down to 16.5, a difference of about 30 points on the season.

This brings up the question posed today by Matt Mosley to John Clayton on ESPN.com's blog network, "What do you think of the Redskins playoff chances":

"To me, the Redskins remain a playoff contender," writes Clayton. "They were last year. They are this year. They do have the easiest schedule in the NFC East. With the additions of Albert Haynesworth and Brian Orakpo, the Redskins will have a top-10 defense. If they can avoid injuries, they could be a top-five defense. Thomas should come on as the No. 3 receiver. He's had a decent offseason. If they can get to 21 points a game, they could have a very interesting season."

What Clayton is saying here is an understatement. If the Redskins end up scoring 5 more PPG than last year under similar circumstances, they will win 13 games easily. Of course, if the Redskins throw caution to the wind in doing so, they could improve to 24 PPG and end up losing 9 games. There's plenty of ways to increase PPG in football. The ONLY way we will be concerned with today is doing so in an environment that favors fewer points scored, and fewer points against.

Mosely refers to the 21 point per game figure thrown out by Clayton as a "magic number" for the Redskins offense. This, of course, is disingenuous. At 19 PPG, the Redskins are a 10 win playoff team, easily. 21 is no more of a magic number than 18.5 or 24. It's an insignificant number. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't ask the question: are the Redskins capable of upping their PPG total by 5 points if they get no more help from the coaches, defense, or special teams than in 2008?

Football Outsiders' Drive Stats are particularly helpful in determining this. The Redskins had 174 offensive drives last year, which tied them for 20th in the NFL. This breaks down to 11 drives per game, rounded off slightly. In 2008, the Redskins averaged 1.49 Points per Drive, or 16.2 PPG. The remaining 0.4 points per game came from a lone defensive TD scored against Arizona.

To up their scoring total by the desired 4.4 PPG, they have to find a way to up their Points per Drive stat to 1.90. Looking at the 2008 chart, this would put the offense on equal points-scoring ground with NFC East opponents Philadelphia and Dallas, as well as Minnesota and Tennessee.

Here's the kicker: I wrote above that the Redskins were already performing up to par in yards/drive. Well, even in it's current turnover-averse state, the Redskins yards/drive figure is precisely in between the offenses of Minnesota/Philadelphia, and Dallas. If yards are to be taken as a loose indicator of point-scoring ability, then the 2008 Redskins offense already has the tools to average 21 PPG.

If this statement is valid, we should be able to look back at the 2008 season and find actual instances where the team could have scored 70 more points based on it's offensive production, but failed to do so. This will be tested in part two on Thursday.

Is Clinton Portis the New LaVar Arrington?

Fri, 19 Jun 2009 20:24:30 +0000

In the slow part of pro football season, who can pass up the opportunity to make mountains out of mole hills?

Certainly not me.

Washington Redskins running back Clinton Portis has some type of open confrontation with head coach Jim Zorn during the recent Organized Team Activity (OTA).

So naturally, Mike Florio at rumor-monger ProFootballTalk.com reports that Portis is becoming a major problem for Zorn.

PFT actually does a decent job validating the rumors it reports, so there's little doubt that something went down at Redskin Park. But, major problem? You mean, more than normal?

PFT rehashes the special relationship Portis enjoys with owner Daniel Snyder and comments Skins legend John Riggins said of Portis last January. "He (Portis) is already a headache," said Riggo, who then suggested that Portis is a problem created by the owner who regards Portis as a friend.

Snyder is said to confide on Portis on team moves.

But, problem for Zorn? That's a definate maybe and a more definate probably not.

Jim Zorn is known for his candor. It's just as likely that he encourages candor from the players. It's just as likely that Portis had a bad day.

This is a nit; a mole hill.

But Snyder does have a too-cozy relationship with some of his star players. Clinton Portis is one of those players. That's not healthy for an organization.

Redskins linebacker LaVar Arrington enjoyed a similar friendship with Daniel Snyder. The management problem is that owners and players sometimes work at cross purposes. It's not personal. Their self-interests conflict sometimes.

Daniel and his friend LaVar crossed swords on bonus payment, the matter became deeply personal. Personal involvement prevented Snyder from acting as a honest broker in the dispute the star player was having with the team.

That strikes me a the bigger danger here and it's a management issue more than a player-coach issue.

Getting Younger is Hard to Do

Fri, 19 Jun 2009 07:55:00 +0000

Look at this:

The Redskins were the third oldest team in the league heading into 2008, according to ESPN.com's Mike Sando. This came one year after the 2007 team was the oldest team the NFL.

Clearly, the Redskins had two goals in the offseason: 1) to get better, and 2) to get younger.

Nine players who started the year with the Redskins in 2008 are no longer on the roster. In their place, I have put 9 of the front runners to replace them below, along with each player's age on opening day. I'm going to illustrate a point.

Additions

Brian Orakpo - 23
Kevin Barnes - 23
Albert Haynesworth - 28
DeAngelo Hall - 25
Derrick Dockery - 28
Mike Williams - 28
Jeremy Bridges - 29
Roydell Williams - 28
Marko Mitchell - 23

Subtractions

Jon Jansen - 33
Pete Kendall - 36
Shawn Springs - 34
Jason Taylor - 35
James Thrash - 34
Marcus Washington - 32
Demetric Evans - 29
Khary Campbell - 30
Erasmus James - 28

The point I want to illustrate is that the Redskins shed as many veterans as the salary cap would allow in a single offseason. Most teams will decide every offseason which veterans can still help them win so they don't end up with the type of purge the Redskins did. As you would expect, the Redskins gave up on a player or two before they ran out of good years simply in the spirit of getting younger. After all, they were accomplishing one of their offseason goals by doing so.

Except, what if we do the math on it?

Ave age of departed player = 32.33
Ave age of added player = 26.11
__________________________
Difference = 6.22 years

So the players who replaced the departed veterans are, on average, 6.22 years younger than the players who they are replacing on the roster. That seems about right.

But the Redskins aren't going to get 6.22 years younger on average. This is because they will roster 53 players. Barring more cuts to veterans between now and the start of the season, that means that 44 players who were on last year's week one roster will be on this year's week one roster. We have to multiply the difference by the turnover rate.

(Difference = 6.22 years) X (Roster Turnover = 9/53) = Decrease in average age of Redskins' roster member.

Answer: 1.06 years.

That's a pretty significant number. But, alas, we still have not addressed the big problem with the average age of a player on a team: it's not a number that ages particularly well.

Based only on the players who are new to the 2009 Redskins, and who they replaced, the Redskins would be 6.22 years younger. But--and this is the money shot--every player who wasn't replaced is a year older. This is unavoidable. Every year, the majority of your team gets one year older. And there's not a lot a team can do to stop it, as evidenced by the Redskins doing more or less everything possible to curb the aging process this offseason.

(Part of team replaced = 9/53 X Average age decrease = 6.22) -- (Part of team held over = 44/53 X Average age increase = 1)

The average age of a Washington Redskins player in 2009 will be only 0.25 years less than in 2008.

According to Sando's article, the Redskins began 2008 with an average player age of 28.01. Unless the Redskins cut more veterans in training camp, they will enter 2009 with an average player age close to 27.75. The Redskins will likely not be one of the five oldest teams in football, but still one of the ten oldest.

In 2007, the Redskins were the oldest team in the NFL, according to John Clayton. They entered training camp in 2008 as the oldest team after the Jason Taylor trade, but they cut down about half a year. After a systematic veteran purge, the Redskins are still going to be among the 10 oldest teams in the NFL next year.

They're getting better. But the Redskins will learn that being a young, talented team is a team philosophy, not something that can be micromanaged by simply not resigning players above the league average age.

Look at the acquisitions. Over half, 5/9, are 28 or 29 years of age. That's younger than the players they are replacing. But draft picks are 21-24 years of age. A team that wishes to be young every year must rely on the draft more than the Redskins do. Patience is a common refrain. But in essence, this analysis illustrates why the Jason Taylor trade is so crucial. Because of the trade, the Redskins got one year of a 34 year old player, but they also lost their second round pick. Instead of having a 22 or 23 year old in the additions, you instead get a 28 year old street free agent filling that roster spot. The Jason Taylor trade not only made the team older in the immediate, but it also made the Redskins 5 years older at a his roster spot, even after he was gone.

Getting younger is not easy.

Redskins Need to Avoid Additional Moves this Offseason

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 06:05:00 +0000

I was going to make a post about the best remaining free agents who could help the Redskins. And at the right price (i.e. very little) and contract length (i.e. one year) there are players who can help the team.

But that got me thinking: my projections for the upcoming season are basically finished, they like the Redskins. How much? I'm not telling, yet. That's a post for a training camp day. But since I started it last year, I'm 1 for 1 in nailing the Redskins record, so I'll just rest on my small sample laurels.

Anyway, I've come to the conclusion that there are moves that can improve the Redskins. I have also decided that the Redskins should avoid any of these moves.

The Redskins could trade for Brandon Marshall. They could trade for Anquan Boldin. They could up the offer to unsigned Redskins Pete Kendall or Marcus Washington. There's plenty a talented running back who could help make this roster. I think even a blocking TE such as Jeremy Tuman could help this team win. The best move: stand pat.

In past years, one of the biggest issues with the Redskins has been their impulsive nature; not in March or April, but in June through November. For the most part, it's been the late offseason and in-season acquisitions that have hurt the team the most. What good did the freak out episodes that brought us Jimmy Farris, T.J. Duckett, Mike Rumph, Jason Taylor, Shaun Alexander, and DeAngelo Hall bring us? A big contract for Hall? Three fewer draft picks? One fewer season of Taylor Jacobs? Yes!

Every team thinks it's best off during OTA's. Optimism runs abound, and coaches are seeing the fruits of their offseason labors in an environment where there's no such thing as a losing effort. Naturally, there's going to be positive feelings that will not last through the preseason. These feelings are usually quite hollow, and mostly temporary.

After optimism gives way, it's critical that NFL teams that do have a vision stick to their plan. For the handful of teams that have no long-term vision, it really doesn't matter. But the Redskins have never been a team that has struggled to develop a long-term plan or identity. They have struggled in sticking to the plans they have created.

It's hard to quantify the work done in OTA's, but by all accounts, it's worth something. When an NFL team stresses the value of OTA's, demands that all of it's players put in the work which the NFL considers voluntary, and starts to draw conclusions about who can do what come September, what good does it do to bring in a player who has to start from scratch. In the past few years, there have been some good late off-season acquisitions: Steve McNair comes to mind, as does Daunte Culpepper to Oakland. But those players were filling clear, measurable needs for their teams. Clear need, as in, there was no in-house solution who would have benefited from the playing time.

What spots do the Redskins have where this is the case? Perhaps Center? Jeremy Newberry (best remaining FA Center) was just signed by Atlanta. Other than that, the Redskins have a bunch of young backups, a bunch of veteran starters, and need to create spots for their youngsters to get into, not to block them with more veterans. Even at the critical positions of offensive line, running back, and wide receiver, this principle holds true. The Redskins don't have position where adding extra talent makes sense unless a fantastic deal lands right in their lap.

In coach-speak, the Redskins have already started climbing the mountain towards a super bowl title. They are moving forward with 85 guys right now. No one can tell me that out of those 85 guys, there aren't 53 guys who are capable of helping this team win right now. Trading out one of the 85 guys who have been working and helping this team build something special for an outsider is too much like those moves that have doomed this team in the past. Because of where the Redskins are, and because of where they want to go, I believe all the talent they could ever need to reach their goals is in-house.

It's an advantage that the Redskins and the Cowboys have that the Eagles and the Giants will not. When your season ends early, you can get a jump on your preparation for the next season early. The expectations from this team could not be higher. The Redskins all need to take a lesson from Jason Campbell, and just move forward. Yes, that includes the group that has been trying to replace him. Even at the expense of a marginal addition to the talent base, the competitive advantage the Redskins need is that they are many steps ahead of their competition. They have more continuity than any other team in the NFC East.

Here's hoping they don't look back.

Brandon Lloyd Signs with Denver. Brandon Marshall Demands Trade.

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:27:34 +0000

No, the two player moves are not related, at least I don't think they are. But it's fun putting the two headlines together.

In a move that strikes fear in no one in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos signed wide receiver Brandon Lloyd to a contract.

Lloyd still evokes memories of shame and doubt. I referred to him as a "gifted receiver" when the Redskins signed him and Adam Archuleta as the last pieces needed for that sure-fire 2006 super Bowl run.

The experience taught Washington's blogging community that healthy skepticism is a good thing. That's why we can question the logic of what we're hearing from Redskin Park without any disloyalty to the team.

Lloyd caught 43 and 48 passes the two seasons before he signed with the Redskins. The 49ers were a weak team with a question-mark at quarterback. Surely, Lloyd with blossom with Joe Gibbs' Skins who made the playoffs in 2005.

It was only after he bombed here (23 receptions, 365 yards, 0 TDs), and after reading a passing reference by Skin Patrol on Hogs Haven, that I took a deep look at Lloyd's performance.

Brandon Lloyd was not the equal of Rod Gardner, the man he was brought in to replace.

Gardner, called "fifty-fifty" by Bruce Smith because those were the odds he would catch any ball that would hit his hands, managed 46 receptions and four touchdowns as a rookie. Over the next three seasons, Gardner never caught less than 51 passes or fewer than five touchdowns in any one year.

Lloyd never caught more than 48 passes in any season in his career. He contributed 23 receptions in Washington's non-march to the Super Bowl. Pro Football Prospectus 2008 says Lloyd caught 44 percent of the passes thrown his way in 2005, his best year.

Odds are that Lloyd is merely the practice dummy for new Denver QB Kyle Orton.

As if to say "There's not enough room in Denver for two Brandon's," wide receiver Brandon Marshall is demanding a trade. Shockingly, Denver is considering it.

If Denver can set up a draft auction for QB Jay Cutler, why not do the same for Cutler's No. 1 receiver Marshall?

I don't think that's going to happen, but what do I know. I didn't think the Broncos would cut Cutler loose for any amount of draft picks.

Marshall's good-bye statement is up on his web site.

"It's hard leaving an organization ran by one of the best owners in all of sports, and someone who's been there for me through my ups and downs. The hardest thing was hearing Mr. B wish me luck in the future, but we both came to the conclusion that this is probably the best thing for me to grow on and off the field."

It's a round world. Brandon's Marshall's demands now are the same as Brandon Lloyd's in 2005-'06 before he joined the Redskins.

That scares me shirtless.

Redskins owner Daniel Snyder was willing to trade first round picks for Chad Ochocinco (nee Johnson), Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. He will at least think about Marshall, who's at least a better receiver than Lloyd, or Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly.

It could be worse. Pat Bowlen could be the Redskins' owner. I have no idea what he's doing to the Broncos. Chances are that he doesn't, either.

Justin Tryon, Head-Turner?

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 23:30:00 +0000

The Redskins cornerback situation has never failed to be awfully unpredictable.

Who saw DeAngelo Hall coming here in the middle of the year? Who saw Leigh Torrence improving, seemingly out of nowhere, and then getting released in the middle of the year? Who looked at Carlos Rogers in 2006 and thought, "that guy has shutdown type skills." Alas, Carlos Rogers is a shutdown corner, Leigh Torrence is a young, quality nickelback for Gregg Williams, and DeAngelo Hall is a Redskin.

I think, in many ways, the selection of Maryland Senior CB Kevin Barnes came as a surprise to many because Fred Smoot seems to be blocking him right now, and because the team had an over-publicized need on the offensive line.

But, now, the unexpected strikes again at the position: multiple coaches and team insiders report that Justin Tryon has been stealing the show at OTA's and minicamp. Yes, that Justin Tryon. The same guy who was last seen looking lost during the preseason last year.

Once again, this affirms that nothing that you see during the preseason is relevant to anything you would want to think. But more importantly, the Redskins have gone from an incredibly thin defensive backfield on the day they cut Shawn Springs to having two players ages 23 or younger in Barnes and Tryon who the team really likes and thinks could take over at one corner or the other sometime in the future.

Carlos Rogers also appears to be taking OTA's much more seriously than he has in the past, although he was unable to run at this time last year thanks to multiple torn knee ligaments suffered in November of 2007. But that's always a good thing that the Redskins appear to still be interested in the development of Carlos Rogers. Because that's why I'm really writing this column. Carlos Rogers is a freak, a true No. 1, a shutdown corner, and everything you would ever need to know about his character was affirmed when he was out there in Week One, only 10 months after his left knee was shredded, shutting down Eli Manning, Drew Brees, and Kurt Warner. But the Redskins don't necessarily value character, at least not in the way that Joe Gibbs did. The Redskins have, in many ways, returned to expecting results. Rogers has delivered on the field, but he's also the oldest member of the Redskins' secondary (save for Smoot), and he's the one with the contract expiring the soonest (end of 2009).

So now there's a dilemma: is the unexpected development of Justin Tryon, the potential development of Kevin Barnes, or the good play of DeAngelo Hall down the stretch last year...are these things actually going to hurt the team long term?

Assumption #1: The Redskins are a better team with a healthy Carlos Rogers than they are without him. Weeks 15, 16, and 17 seem to prove this.

Assumption #2: The team is eventually going to have to make a decision on Rogers' future with the team. Rogers has every right to be asked to be paid like one of the ten best CBs in the game (he's either 5 or 6, IMO). The team always reserves the right to decide a player's price tag exceeds his future value, but then they have to find a way to replace the talent. Rogers is not going to be easy to replace.

Assumption #3: Rogers will have no regrets about heading elsewhere if the money is better. This isn't going to be another Ladell Betts situation again.

Assumption #4: DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot are incapable of filling a potential hole vacated by Rogers

One of the biggest problems with the ridiculous Hall contract is that the Redskins went well above market value to retain him, and find themselves in a situation where they have a dynamic No. 2 CB at No. 1 type money. They did this despite an upcoming contract situation with their number one.

The only conclusion that can be rationally drawn, is that the Redskins see a day where Carlos Rogers is not on their team. Whether that be in 2010, or 2011, or even further down the road, the team has gone well out of their way to get younger. If Carlos Rogers is indeed the present, and not the future in Washington, then maybe it's time to start looking at what the future holds.

Can Kevin Barnes be a shut down corner? He's got the skills, but he also comes with a laundry list of injuries that helped him fall to the third round of this year's NFL draft. Development tends to be difficult on an injury-prone player, more practice time in the training room means less time out on the field, means less time getting better. You can flip a coin here on whether you can expect Barnes to have enough 14-16 game seasons to truly get a fair shot at developing, and even if he does, nothing in the NFL is guarenteed except that his tools will always be there. Barnes is an excellent gamble, but still, don't ever expect anything from a gamble.

This brings us back to Tryon. Is it really all that unreasonable to expect a contribution here? If Tryon becomes a better than replacement corner in the NFL, it continues an impressive three year streak of hitting on late round and undrafted talent for Vinny Cerrato. From Monty, Golston, and Doughty in 2006, to Stephon Heyer and HB Blades in 2007, to Kareem Moore and Chris Horton in 2008 and who knows, you could one day throw Tryon or Rob Jackson in that mix. That's nine names in the last three years, and this past draft includes a pair of linebackers the team likes, as well as an undrafted Center who was highly rated. The main point is: the Redskins weren't guessing in the dark with Tryon. They weren't simply saving face when they spared him a roster spot after DHall came over.

We always considered the possibility that the team's faith in Tryon might have been faith misplaced. Well, unless a lot of people around OTA's are just blowing smoke, it might be time to consider the possibility that there might be fire here. Like Kevin Barnes, Justin Tryon has No. 1 type physical skills. Like Rogers, Tryon struggled considerably making the adjustment to the NFL game. Like DeAngelo Hall, the guy is a ball-hawk. Like Fred Smoot, his mouth speaks louder than his actions.

So in many ways, Tryon fits in well into the couch groove that is the Washington Redskins defensive backfield. This is an excellent place for him to develop naturally, at his pace, and not to be forced into the lineup because the team needs his services. In November of last year, the team decided that he had more upside than 24 year old Leigh Torrence, who they let walk. If the Redskins do see a day where Carlos Rogers is wearing a Falcon jersey, it's hard for me not to think that Justin Tryon is part of the solution.

And to think that, a half year ago, he was the metaphorical embodiment of everything that was wrong with Washington football.

What will the 2011 Redskins look like?

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:35:00 +0000

Anthony and I need a "crazily speculative post" tag here. It would certainly apply to what I'm thinking about today.

News broke recently that the Redskins quietly came to an extension with Santana Moss in Mid May to extend his deal through 2013, and to void it after 2010. If that sounds contradictory to you, don't worry about it. Sometimes, the way the Redskins go about working over the salary cap is quite counterintuitive.

Per the CBA, the Redskins are allowed to prorate bonus money over five years, if in turn they guarantee a player's salary for these next two seasons. Doing this gives the team maximum cap relief, and the automatic void is just another boon for the player, who signs an "extension" without altering his free agency year. Clever stuff.

These contracts manage to provide us outsiders significant insight into the team's future plans. We know that Santana Moss is not going to be a player on the 2011 Redskins. Ditto for Cornelius Griffin. Antwaan Randle El and Andre Carter are highly questionable bets to be around that long. In addition, a lot of the young players on the 2009 team will be facing expiring contracts within the next two years. So, given the high uncertainty regarding the next two years, we'll take a look at the current roster, and the probabilities they will be around in 2011.

Offensive Backfield

Jason Campbell: 55%
Clinton Portis: 80%
Ladell Betts: 25%
Mike Sellers: 30%

Mike Sellers' contract expires, so he might retire in the near future, but he's unlikely to play elsewhere. Ladell Betts is under contract through 2011, but probably won't make it to 2010 once the Redskins begin a youth movement at the RB position. Clinton Portis isn't a certainty to be around in two years, as his cap number will be in excess of 10 million, allowing the Redskins to get away from the contract if he isn't productive in 2010, but if he's reasonably productive, the Redskins can easily restructure that high cap number.

I'm giving Campbell better than even odds of establishing himself and earning a contract extension this year, but I don't want to go too much higher than 50%. The team wants to have Jason Campbell be the guy, but they're just not married to the idea of bringing him back. There's no telling what he has to do this year, just that he's likely to accomplish it.

Receivers

Chris Cooley: 95%
Fred Davis: 90%
Santana Moss: 0%
Antwaan Randle El: 20%
Malcolm Kelly: 75%
Devin Thomas: 60%

These probabilities suggest that the tight end situation is incredibly stable, however, the receivers, not so much. The plan seems to be that the team will ship Moss and Randle El out within the next two seasons. Moss' salaries are guaranteed through 2010, so he's going to be here the next two years, but then he hits the market, and would be unlikely to re-sign here.

Malcolm Kelly is likely to be on the team and in the starting lineup in 2011, and the Redskins hope that Devin Thomas is the Redskins other receiver, but given his performance as a rookie, it will be interesting to see if he can make it to the back end of his rookie deal. Kelly has to prove he can stay on the field, while Thomas needs to prove he belongs on the field.

Offensive Line

Chris Samuels: 75%
Derrick Dockery: 95%
Casey Rabach: 5%
Randy Thomas: 15%
Stephon Heyer: 70%
Chad Rinehart: 50%

As Samuels continues to age, and Heyer continues to develop, the Redskins would love if they could just flip positions in 2011. Heyer's contract becomes an issue after this year though, so he absolutely has to play well in 2009, and then not drop off in 2010. 70% chance that happens. Samuels contract voids after 2012, so the plan is to have him there through the 2011 season, but strange things can happen. Dockery has a team friendly contract and a team friendly birthdate, so he's a virtual lock. Rabach has a voidable contract for the conclusion of the 2009 season, but I can't give him a zero thanks to the team's odd obsession with his mediocre play. Randy Thomas is aging, and I think he could hit the end of the road by 2010, but his ability to play 3 more seasons is highly in question. Chad Rinehart will be in a dogfight for his roster spot each year unless he can break into the starting lineup.

Defensive Line
Albert Haynesworth 100%
Brian Orakpo 98%
Andre Carter 25%
Phillip Daniels 0%
Renaldo Wynn 0%
Cornelius Griffin 0%
Anthony Montgomery 50%
Kedric Golston 30%
Lorenzo Alexander 75%
Rob Jackson 45%
Chris Wilson 10%

Take a look at the Haynesworth contract. Trust me, he's on the payroll in 2011 regardless of how many limbs he has left. Orakpo is all but certain to be there, save a freak accident. Andre Carter could survive the option year in 2010, and conceivably still be a contributor in 2011, but the chances of him being there decreased significantly when the team drafted Haynesworth. Griffin's contract voids after 2010, so he's out. I gave Montgomery a coin flip chance of earning an extension here with limited playing time to prove himself behind Haynesworth. On Golston, the chances aren't even 50-50, and they are highly dependent on Montgomery. There's a good chance that Lorenzo Alexander will earn a modest extension. His contract expires this year. Chris Wilson doesn't have a firm position right now, and he might not make the 2009 team.

Linebackers

London Fletcher: 35%
Rocky McIntosh: 60%
HB Blades: 80%
Robert Thomas: 5%

Fletcher would be in the last year of his contract in 2011, and he would also be 36, which suggest that the team would move to replace him before then. 2/3 chance of that happening. Rocky McIntosh is working on an extension with the team, and I think it's likely to get done sometime this season. He's got a good chance to be around in 2011. HB Blades is the youngest Redskins LB with experience, and he's the one who is most likely to be around in the future, because even a modest extension will keep him in Burgundy into the prime of his career. Robert Thomas was a depth signing, and probably will not warrant multi-year consideration.

Defensive Backs

DeAngelo Hall: 80%
Carlos Rogers: 60%
Kevin Barnes: 95%
Fred Smoot: 10%
Justin Tryon: 50%
Laron Landry 95%
Chris Horton 85%
Kareem Moore 80%
Reed Doughty 35%

Hall has all the money of this bunch. I'm giving him a 20% chance of an Oakland like implosion, because otherwise, his contract suggests that he will be here through 2011 and likely beyond. Carlos Rogers is perhaps the Redskin most deserving of a new deal, but he's going to be eligible for unrestricted free agency prior to 2011, and since the Redskins aren't hurting at the position, the team probably won't meet his contract demands unless the he meets the team halfway. Doesn't mean they won't use the franchise tag for a season. Smoot's final year of his contract is 2011, but I don't think he'll last past 2009. Justin Tryon is young and under contract through 2011, but could get forced out sooner if he doesn't develop on schedule.

LaRon Landry is signed through 2011 and will likely be extended before then. Chris Horton would be a RFA, as would Kareem Moore. Neither is likely to be elsewhere. Reed Doughty has value on special teams and limited value elsewhere, so his roster spot will be up for grabs on a yearly basis, although it wouldn't be all that shocking if he were still here in the same capacity.

2011

Clinton Portis would likely find himself in a backfield time share at age 30. If Jason Campbell returns, he will likely find himself throwing to Malcolm Kelly, Devin Thomas, and a third receiver who isn't yet with the team (if not Antwaan Randle El). Kelly, because of his size, is likely to be the star of the bunch. Meanwhile, it's likely that the Redskins are still running two tight end sets in an explosive offense with Chris Cooley, in the middle of his prime, and Fred Davis, who is just entering his.

Things get murkier if the team decides Campbell is not the guy. That likely means that a first day draft pick in 2010 is going towards a quarterback, in what appears to be a really deep and strong QB class. Campbell, of course, would be in the prime of his career by 2011, so if he can develop within this offense, there's no reason to make the change.

In a perfect world, the Redskins would be able to start Stephon Heyer at LT and have a 34 year old Chris Samuels at RT by 2011, but if Heyer struggles in 2009, it's likely that the team will spend a high draft pick on a tackle. Derrick Dockery should be entrenched at RG, but the team will sport a different C and RG. Maybe UDFA Edwin Williams will have the C job, and hopefully Chad Rinehart can be the next RG, but both options are likely wishful thinking.

Haynesworth is still the big stud on the defensive side, with Orakpo racking up all those sacks at RE. Ideally, Lorenzo Alexander or Rob Jackson could be the LE of the future, but the team might add reinforcements at that position in the draft. It looks like HB Blades is going to get Fletcher's job by 2011, save another Antonio Pierce situation, and it's likely that Rocky is still there. I wouldn't be surprised if Alfred Fincher is handling the SLB duties three years from now. He was a former third round pick, and has the size to handle the position.

I'm thinking DeAngelo Hall and Kevin Barnes are the starting corners, with Tryon as a nickelback. Rogers is likely playing elsewhere after signing a mega-bucks deal, although the Redskins would be best off re-signing him. The safety rotation is the same as it is right now.

HB Blades is the guy on the defense who would likely come out of nowhere to become a dependable player, but the rest of the defense is already considered ready for stardom. LaRon Landry, Albert Haynesworth, and Brian Orakpo enter this year with great expectations, and it's hard to imagine that they wouldn't be the major contributors, along with Blades, on the 2011 team.

Offensively, it's going to be up to the draft picks to make all the plays. The Tight End position is going to be huge -- I can't stress this enough. If Jason Campbell enjoys great success here, it's going to take great play from Fred Davis and Chris Cooley. Easy bet to say they'll get it. I don't see a pro bowler on the offensive line in 2011, but I think we'll see the Redskins make a big name free agency signing there at some point. As mentioned above, it's a longshot that either Edwin Williams or Chad Rinehart develops, much less both. Is Derrick Dockery a pro bowler? I don't really see it. But Cooley is a perennial pro bowler, and Campbell, Portis, and Malcolm Kelly should be on the fringe.

The identity of the team two years from now should be very similar to what it is now: the talent on the defensive end is where you would start when you talk about this team. On the offensive end, a lot of young guys will be the core of the offense over the next three years. Some will develop as expected, others won't. Who develops and how long it takes will shape the offense, whereas the defense should make a name for itself now, and pass that name along to the younger players. A lot of uncertainty center around Jason Campbell and Carlos Rogers, and also the running back and wide receiver situations.

All-in-all, I'm not expecting widespread changes over the next three years. I'm expecting strong player development, and three or four critical personnel decisions to shape the team into the next decade. The biggest decisions will be:

Jason Campbell at Quarterback
Carlos Rogers at Cornerback
Choosing to add a veteran on the offensive line at some point
Picking the right time to turn over the MLB spot from Fletcher to Blades

And that's really where the front office is going to earn it's money. The team is largely built for the future already. But those key, critical decisions will determine whether this team contends for a super bowl, or whether they are a mid-level NFC East contender over the next five seasons. I don't have the right answers to those questions above, but then again, I'm not paid to. I'm simply identifying. The ball is in the team's court, because I think this team is good enough to win a super bowl. But they won't be around long if they squander their draft picks and make poor personnel decisions in the near-term future.