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PredictionMachine.com: Redskins good for 8 wins in 2014

Hog Heaven has not released its official projection of Redskins wins for the season, but our “feels like” guesstimate is eight, maybe nine, wins. But then, we thinks the ‘Skins should have won seven games last year even with Kirk Cousins at quarterback.

With most sports books projecting an over/under of 7.5 wins, it “feels like” Hog Heaven should take the over … if, you know, I were a betting man, which I am not, so don’t bet your life savings on what you just read.

My friend Paul Bessire emailed his season projection and it included a game by game prediction of Washington’s season. He sees the ‘Skins with eight wins. I love it when the stat masters confirm my gut feel.

Here is his break down followed by a few comments.

PredictionMachine.com 2014 Season Projection for Washington Redskins

WEEK
OPPONENT
REDSKINS' SCORE
OPPONENT'S SCORE
WIN %
1@Texans25.124.950.4%
2Jaguars32.121.076.2%
3@Eagles30.033.542.5%
4Giants25.224.751.2
5Seahawks19.926.633.5
6@Cardinals22.626.640.2
7Titans30.723.267.6
8@Cowboys34.231.456.1
9@Vikings30.328.753.3
10BYE
11Buccaneers28.423.561.7
12@49ers23.428.538.1
13@Colts27.629.845.0
14Rams25.623.355.6
15@Giants23.126.741.7
16Eagles29.231.545.0
17Cowboys33.529.359.0
REDSKINS' PTS/GAMEOPPONENT'S PTS/GAMEWins
27.627.18.2
In sports, matchups dictate outcomes. Instead of data mining to attempt to find historical trends that may lend some insight into future games, PredictionMachine.com's accuracy stems from the Predictalator (a fancy name for the Machine), which plays an upcoming game 50,000 times before it's actually played. There are 11 teams that win the championship between 1% and 4% of the time, including some teams that did not even make the playoffs last year like the Houston Texans, New York Giants, Washington Redskins and Arizona Cardinals.

Interesting thoughts…

The Prediction Machine:

  • projects a sweep of the Cowboys, a split with the Giants and losses to the Eagles. Shh! Don’t tell DJax that.
  • favors the home team in the Redskins-Giants series
  • says the Redskins won 50.4 percent of the simulated games with the Texans. That’s close enough to be a pick ‘em game. The Texans have may of the same issues as the Redskins. New coach after an unexpectedly bad year. New offensive scheme with both teams evolving away from the Shanahan-Kubiak system. Both teams have quarterbacks on a learning curve, but we feel a lot better about Robert Griffin III than Andre Johnson feels about Ryan Fitzpatrick.
  • says wins over the Jaguars, Titans and Buccaneers are sure bets. Three-win teams should not see any opponent as sure bets.
  • says the Redskins will beat the Vikings 30-29. The Redskins and Vikings have moved in lockstep in division rankings and will meet for the fifth consecutive year this year. Washington is 1-3 in in the last four games. I’m pretty sure we haven’t beaten a Norv Turner-coached team since Mr. Snyder dumped him. Turner is Minnesota’s OC.
  • says the Redskins will beat the Rams. I hope so. The rams finagled the picks we gave them for Robert Griffin III for 800 players or something. Even though they have yet to win a playoff game, we will never hear the end of it if the Rams win…again. The Redskins are 2-3 against the Rams in five consecutive games between 2008 and 2012 when both teams were mired in division fourth place. Here we are again.
  • says the Redskins points per game will be slightly higher that opponents points per game (27.6 vs. 27.1). Washington averaged 20.9 points per game in 2013 and 27.25 in 2012.
  • says the Broncos will win the next Super Bowl in a rematch with the Seahawks.

PredictionMachine.com ranks the Redskins 12th in its preseason power poll.

 

Anthony Brown

About Anthony Brown

Lifelong Redskins fan and blogger about football and life since 2004. Joined MVN's Hog Heaven blog in 2005 and then moved Redskins Hog Heaven to Bolguin Network. Believes that the course of a season is pre-ordained by management decisions made during the offseason. Can occasionally be found on the This Given Sunday blog and he does guest posts.

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