Breaking down the Redskins seven-win season

Redskins Hog Heaven reported predictionmachine.com’s 2012 projection for the Washington Redskins yesterday, along with a Q&A with statmaster Paul Bessire who simulated the entire NFL season. Today, we wrap up with Bessire’s game-by-game projection for the ‘Skins along with his predicted playoff results.

For those who want to stop here, this is Bessire’s bottom line:

  • Redskins finish in division 4th place with 7 wins
  • Lombardi Trophy stays with the Beast – Eagles over Patriots, 28 – 26
  • Robert Griffin III wins Offensive Rookie of the Year

Week Opponent Redskins Score Opponent Score Win %
1 @ Saints 25.2 31 37
2 @ Rams 20 20.9 47.5
3 Bengals 20.6 18.9 54.7
4 @ Buccaneers   26.8 22 61.5
5 Falcons 22.3 22.3 50
6 Vikings 27.9 16.6 78.7
7 @ Giants 19.8 27.3 31.5
8 @ Steelers 15.3 25.6 22.3
9 Panthers 28.6 24.6 59.5
10 BYE Week
11 Eagles 18.7 24 36.2
12 @ Cowboys 20 26.8 33.3
13 Giants 23 24.4 46.6
14 Ravens 17.4 19.7 43.5
15 @ Browns 20.4 20.1 50.8
16 @ Eagles 16.4 25.2 26.9
17 Cowboys 23.2 23.3 49.9
Points/Game Points/Game Total Wins
21.6 23.3 7.3

RHH Comments

  • The Redskins could win their opening game. Saints will need half the season to overcome their offseason travails. However they cope, Week One is the best time to face New Orleans.
  • Good thing the NFL shut down New Orleans’ bounty program. Um, it is shut down, right?
  • The Rams appear on the Redskins schedule with the regularity of two fourth-place clubs that cannot escape the basement. Washington won two of the last five games.
  • Redskins over the Bengals is surprising. Sophomore slump for Andy Dalton?
  • Don’t sleep on the Vikings. The Redskins knocked Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder out of the game in their last match. Remember what happened then?
  • Things get very tough starting Week 7 when the ‘Skins run a gauntlet of NFC Beast and AFC North teams. Injuries will be a factor. It helps that the BYE is Week 10. 
  • The Redskins have never beaten a Mike Vick-led team when Vick completed the game.
  • The NFL will regret not scheduling Panthers @ Redskins (Cam Newton vs. RG3) for national television. They saved that for Panthers @ Eagles about a week later. 

Based on the Bessire’s analysis, here is the projected NFL 2012 Playoff bracket. It should be noted however, that this exact bracket only occurred 416 of the 50,000 seasons played by the Predictalator:

AFC
Wild Card Round
#6 Buffalo 16 @ #3 Pittsburgh 23
#5 Baltimore 20 @ #4 San Diego 21

Divisional Round
#3 Pittsburgh 17 @ #2 Houston 20
#4 San Diego 24 @ #1 New England 34

AFC Championship 
#2 Houston 23 @ #1 New England 29

NFC
Wild Card Round
#6 New York Giants 19 @ #3 San Francisco 20
#5 Detroit 23 @ #4 Atlanta 26

Divisional Round
#4 Atlanta 17 @ #1 Philadelphia 26
#3 San Francisco 19 @ #2 Green Bay 27

NFC Championship 
#2 Green Bay 24 @ #1 Philadelphia 28

Super Bowl
Philadelphia 28 over New England 26

Source: www.predictionmachine.com

Anthony Brown

About Anthony Brown

Lifelong Redskins fan and blogger about football and life since 2004. Joined MVN's Hog Heaven blog in 2005 and then moved Redskins Hog Heaven to Bolguin Network. Believes that the course of a season is pre-ordained by management decisions made during the offseason. Can occasionally be found on the This Given Sunday blog and he does guest posts.

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