Prediction Machine Says Another Six-Win Season for 2011 Redskins

crystal ballLast season, stat master Paul Bessire shared with Hog Heaven readers his 2010 projection for the Washington Redskins. Unfortunately for us, he nailed it with a call for a six-win season.

Even Bessire could not have predicted how weird the season unfolded, but his accuracy on the result left me enormously curious about his thoughts for 2011. Get ready for disappointment. Bessire calls for another six-win season for Washington. The ugly details are in the table below.

PredictionMachine.com strives to be the most accurate and trusted source for predicting sports outcomes. The state-of-the-art, Prediction Machine, was built by Bessire, a statistician and veteran sports writer, who offers his in-depth analysis and unique takes through his blog posts and game predictions.

In sports, matchups dictate outcomes. Instead of data mining to attempt to find historical trends that may lend some insight into future games – a common, yet misleading approach for many other predictive models – PredictionMachine.com’s accuracy stems from the Predictalator (a fancy name for the Machine), which plays an upcoming game 50,000 times before it’s actually played.

The Predictalator has already played the 2011 NFL season 50,000 times before it is actually played. The Green Bay Packers repeat as Super Bowl champions, winning it all league-high 13.0% of the time. In the most likely Super Bowl, Green Bay defeats the San Diego Chargers 57.0% of the time and by an average score of 26-23. San Diego, the AFC’s top-seed, wins the Super Bowl 10.5% of the time. The Philadelphia Eagles (10.3%), Pittsburgh Steelers (9.7%) and New England Patriots (9.4%) follow the Packers and Chargers in Super Bowl likelihood.

Here are the Redskins game-by-game projections:

Washington Redskins Schedule

Week 

Opponent

Redskins Score

Opponent Score

Win %

1

Giants

20.6

24.1

40.3

2

Cardinals

24.5

22.0

56.7

3

@ Cowboys

19.4

29.1

24.4

4

@ Rams

21.3

24.9

40.6

5

Bye

6

Eagles

18.5

27.6

25.7

7

@ Panthers

18.9

18.4

51.4

8

@ Bills

18.9

22.8

39.3

9

49ers

24.0

20.9

58.3

10

@ Dolphins

16.7

22.3

33.6

11

Cowboys

21.9

26.2

38.8

12

@ Seahawks 

22.5

23.5

47.4

13

Jets

17.4

22.4

35.6

14

Patriots

20.8

29.2

27.7

15

@ Giants

18.6

27.5

26.5

16

Vikings

20.3

22.4

44.2

17

@ Eagles

16.3

30.5

13.9 

POINTS/GAME POINTS/GAME TOTAL WINS
20.0 24.6 6

Well, I don’t see the Redskins losing to the Bills, nor being swept by their Beast rivals. Washington will upset one of those guys. I like to think this assessment is from my own thoughtful analysis, but it just may be a homer’s wish.

Hog Heaven’s own projection of the season will be up late this week.

Hog Heaven is not compensated for hyping PredictionMachine.com. We just like Paul Bessire’s work and gladly provide a link back to his site in return for allowing us to publish his ‘Skins projection. The results are always fun to look at.  Please see Prediction Machine’s links below.

Projected Standings and Playoff Results

In-Depth Team Analysis

Anthony Brown

About Anthony Brown

Lifelong Redskins fan and blogger about football and life since 2004. Joined MVN's Hog Heaven blog in 2005 and then moved Redskins Hog Heaven to Bolguin Network. Believes that the course of a season is pre-ordained by management decisions made during the offseason. Can occasionally be found on the This Given Sunday blog and he does guest posts.

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