Prior to the 2008 NFL Draft, Brian Burke over at the Advanced NFL Stats blog did some critical research into historical drafting trends. Since the Washington Redskins had arguably critical needs at both WR and DE going into the draft, I think this is a good time to review his results, and apply them to the Redskins' draft. Did the Redskins spend the picks at the right position? Or would they have been better off in the long run addressing the defense with these picks? Burke's work is linked below: Wide Receivers Defensive Ends It's critical to remember that the Redskins were dealing with a bundle of second round picks here. They weren't drafting from a first round caliber class. However, at the receiver position, they were drafting from the top of their board, whereas at the end position, they would have been somewhere in the middle of their board. As the research shows, this ends up being quite a critical distinction in evaluating the Redskins this year. Right off the bat, we should be thinking the Redskins might have screwed this one up. 2nd round receivers don't have a particularly impressive track record. Only 15 percent of 2nd round receivers will ever go to a pro bowl. Only 6% are good enough to go to three or more pro bowls. Second round defensive ends, universally, are better prospects, as 20% of them have gone on to attend multiple pro bowls. The first important thing to remember is that a pro bowler is a pro bowler, but players who go to the pro bowl every year and draw hall of fame votes upon retirement rarely evade scouts and get out of the first round. Michael Strahan was a 2nd round selection. But Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, Lawrence Taylor, Reggie White, and Julius Peppers were all first round picks. Those guys certainly did not evade scouts. Though every one of those players were passed over by at least once team in the draft, Taylor, White, and Peppers were all top 5 selections, and Harrison and Rice went in the second half of the round. At least one (likely a lot more than one) team felt that they had found a hall of famer. Peppers -- probably not a hall of famer, but he has justified his draft status in my opinion. So the Redskins probably weren't getting a hall of famer no matter where they drafted. But this brings us back to the point that basically the entire WR class was still on the board when the Redskins' selected. Based on Burke's research (which, admittedly does assume that the DEs and WRs are both average classes), its the top four receivers selected that have a good chance to go on and enjoy pro-bowl laden careers. Devin Thomas was the 2nd WR drafted; Malcolm Kelly the 8th. Most scouts had Thomas and Kelly lumped in with about 4 other guys. It's not a stretch to assume that they were the two best receivers in the class, and it's probably even less of a stretch to assume that the Redskins overvalued each's skill set and true value in making their selection. As ridiculous as people thought the Rams were by making Donnie Avery the top WR selected, this research suggests that by valuing Avery different than conventional wisdom suggested, they maximized their chances of landing a pro bowl player. Back to the original subject of this discussion: Would the Redskins have been better served to take Ends instead of receivers at picks 34 and 51? If the Redskins' draft board at DE was to mimic the actual order in which the players were picked, then the "best available" players at 34 and 51 would have been Miami's Calais Campbell, and Auburn's Quentin Groves. Campbell and Groves were the 5th and 6th ends off the board respectively. Looking back at the graphs, Campbell and Groves as second round ends have a good chance to be quality ends, evidenced by the 1/3 chance of players drafted around them to become one time probowlers. They have a solid chance to become studs in the NFL. They probably would look very good in B & G for the next ten years, or so the research suggests. But, the top wide receivers undoubtably have a higher ceiling here. The fact that none were taken in the first round is a huge red flag, but it also effectively nullifies the effect that says the best receivers get taken in round one. Make no mistake about it: there will be probowl caliber receivers in this draft class. Also, history suggests that the players who fell through the 2nd round run on receivers have little chance to be NFL starters. If you add these assumptions together, one thing is very clear: a team or two in the second round landed a major steal at the receiver position. Could this team be the Redskins? They certainly have the best chance. The top two receivers taken in each class are coinflip probowlers. The next two after that still have a very good chance. That much at least spells good fortune for Devin Thomas. Personally, I think Donnie Avery and Jordy Nelson have the best chances to outplay their draft status, but I think Malcolm Kelly is going to be the one guy in the class that truely seperates himself from the pack. Because no team picked a receiver in the first round, what the Redskins did in the second made sense, based on their evaluations of the players. In an average year, the Redskins would have been foolish for passing up a pair of second round defensive ends for a second round receivers: the ends are usually the better prospects. But this was no ordinary draft class. For the first time in a very long time, the Scouts could not produce a consensus number one receiver. History suggests that the number one receiver was indeed selected by someone in the second round. If that player is either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly, the Redskins could look back at the 2008 draft as the year where they stole one of the games elite receivers who all other teams were adverse to taking. But if it turns out that one of the other teams who participated in the run on second round receivers got the stud, then the Redskins will be kicking themselves that they didn't draft the top defensive player available. We won't know for awhile how this draft will play out, but the research suggests that at the very least, the Redskins are sitting on some potential diamonds in the rough.