How well will the Redskins defend the Run in 2007?

by archivedposts on August 10, 2007

During the last few months, Hog Heaven has attempted to provide in depth analysis on all things Redskins. The front seven has received a lot of attention based on criticism. But one of the things that we've yet to touch on in depth is how well the defense will look this year with respect to opponents running the football. All of the Redskins defensive moves this offseason were made with an eye on the passing game. Between bringing in 5 new defensive backs who played elsewhere in 2007, spending the sixth overall pick on a safety, and spending big on a 32 year old linebacker, the tweaks to the run defense seemed somewhat insignificant. But as the Colts and Vikings defenses proved last season, unbalanced defenses will be picked apart by balanced offenses. Cornelius Griffin was a better player in 2005 (2.o yards per play) than in 2006 (2.5 yards per play), but he's only 31. He's still got a good chance to rebound. He's the best player on the Redskins defensive line. Joe Saleve'a was the best defender on the Redskins against the run last season, allowing a mere 1.8 yards per play which involved him. The rest of the defensive line is a big concern against the run. Andre Carter was not horrible against the run, ranking 28th among DEs in "stop rate", a statistic designed to show how often a player can stop a successful play. However, Carter is playing at a very light 255, and while its hard to say that playing at a more natural weight will hurt his ability to play the run, if anything, that 28th rank seems a bit optimistic for him to repeat this season. DT Kedric Golston is ranked 34th among DTs in stop rate, which actually seems good when compared to Phillip Daniels' 39th rank among DEs, (and 2.7 yards allowed/play). Renaldo Wynn didn't play very much, but when he did, and teams ran at him, they only averaged 2.1 yards per play. Daniels may have better pass rushing skills, and is a favorite of DL coach Greg Blache since their days together in Chicago. However, Renaldo Wynn should probably be playing the end opposite Andre Carter. At the strong side LB position, Marcus Washington put in another typical Marcus Washington season, and was the best player on the defense last year. The two guys who played next to Washington last year, Lemar Marshall and Warrick Holdman, have been replaced by London Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh. Last year, Holdman and Marshall were awful against the pass, as mentioned in a prior article, but Holdman at least played pretty well against the run, finishing in the top 1/3 among linebackers in yards/play (3.1). In the past, Marshall has been very good against the run. The signing of London Fletcher gives the Redskins a boost against the intermediate passing game, but contrary to what high tackle numbers say, Fletcher is not a great run defender. Against the run last year, he was no better in Buffalo than Lemar Marshall was here. So what do the high tackle numbers say for Fletcher? It says that he saw a lot more action than Marshall did. Marshall was involved in 108 plays, compared to Fletcher's 161. This jives with common sense. The Bills were a team vulnerable in the middle of their defensive line, whereas the Redskins were vulnerable everywhere. Chances are that Fletcher is likely to improve against the run here because he won't have as much responsibility in the defense. Rocky McIntosh will take over the WLB position for Holdman, and he is a complete unknown to date. However, it would likely be optimistic to assume he could defend the run as well as Holdman. We know that he couldn't be any worse against the pass. So far the early returns on McIntosh in limited time last year and training camp this year are generally positive. He can be the key cog in arguably the most important LB position for the Redskins or he can be the guy who holds the defense back. However, it seems like while the Redskins are destined to make a huge improvement against the pass this year, its somewhat unlikely that the run defense will be as good as it was last year. At the very least, the moves made by the Redskins this past season will balance the defense and make it significantly tougher for the opponent to gain yards at will. But the metrics show that from another perspective, it appears that Gregg Williams is simply borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. The prospectus on the Redskins run defense is not as rosy as it was last season. Source: Pro Football Prospectus 2007
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }

Anthony Brown August 11, 2007 at 8:45 am

Interesting thought about Fletcher-Baker NOT being good against the run. I thought the Skins brought him here for exactly that reason.

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KW August 11, 2007 at 8:55 am

I see videos of Bills games anmd Fletcher was pounding the RB. Greg- Is this your first artical? I knew you were a writer for the site but I never saw a artical from you.

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KW August 11, 2007 at 8:56 am

*AND* not anmd*

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KW August 11, 2007 at 8:59 am

Greg- Never mind I just figured out that the Schedules were yours. Good articals!!

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Greg Trippiedi August 13, 2007 at 2:40 pm

Thanks for the props guys.
I just got around to watching the preseason game, and Fletcher’s range is going to be impressive as advertised.
A possible reason for his yards per play being on the higher side is that he didn’t have a whole lot of help in front of him in Buffalo. Well…at least he’s used to it.
Even still, he represents a major upgrade over Marshall against the pass I’ve heard comparisions to Antonio Pierce recently. If Skins fans are expecting him to come in and be Antonio Pierce, he’s not going to live up to expectations against the run. He can however play sideline to sideline, create some turnovers in the passing game, and be a nice weapon in the blitz packages.
He’s just a bit small to dominate the LOS in front of him.

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