The 2006 Saints exceeded even the highest of expectations en route to being one of only 8 NFL teams to record double digit wins last season. While this was an impressive feat, it's important to remember that 10 wins against NFC competition does not make ones team all that much more than average. This article was inspired by an excerpt written by SI.com's Dr. Z in his weekly mailbag column. Per Z:

"Can the Redskins be the 2006 Saints this year? No, because I don't think they have the offensive players nor scheme. But don't go by me. I'm always wrong about this team, as brother Snyder is always quick to point out."

First off, I don't think the Redskins will be trying to achieve success by using the Saints formula. The Saints brought in a brand new QB and drafted a brand new RB while trading a career underachiever WR to Philadelphia for a DT and brought in Jeff Faine. The Redskins brought in no one new on offense this year, so obviously there isn't a "Saints Blueprint" that this team is trying to follow. However, we can compare the quality of talent on the 2007 Redskins offense to that of the 2006 Saints offense and see how likely the Redskins are to be of that caliber. Anecdotally, the Redskins appear to be using a lot of the same methods of improvement the Saints used. The Redskins are bringing in a QB with much promise in Campbell, returning a proven runner from injury, and are bringing in a lot of fresh blood at the receiver position where only 4 players who were on a roster last year are currently rostered by the Redskins. New Orleans posted 10 wins in 2006 by sporting an offense ranking in the league's top 5, and a defense that while below average, played far better than anyone would have predicted. It all started at the QB position where Drew Brees completed 64.3% of his passes for 8 yards per attempt. For point of reference, here are Brees' career completion pcts and yards per attempts by year, excluding his rookie season as to not skew the numbers: 2002 (SD)- 60.8%, 6.2 2003 (SD)- 57.6%, 5.9 2004 (SD)- 65.5%, 7.9 2005 (SD)- 64.6%, 7.2 2006 (NO)- 64.3%, 8.0 What this shows is that Brees broke out as a player in his 4th NFL season. While not many QBs will put it all together at once as Brees did, Brees' progress over his career is still very much what one should have expected based on his college production. But with the numbers suggesting that Brees' level of play has stayed almost exactly consistent every year since 2004, and the media portrayal of Brees' season as one of MVP caliber, how can this discrepancy be explained, and more importantly, how does it relate to Jason Campbell and the Redskins' prospects in 2007? Brees' responsibility in his offense has risen sharply over the last 3 years. He threw 400 times in 2004, 500 times in 2005, and more than 550 times in 2006. To Brees' credit, his rate production has not fallen off at all over the last 3 years. He just accounts for a bigger percentage of his total offense. Predicting what Al Saunders plans to do with his squad might not lead to a lot of quality analysis. Saunders himself admits that he does a lot of his work by feel, and will often get creative and unconventional because of it. However, by investigating into some trends of the past, we can try to predict just how much responsibility Jason Campbell will have this year. After all, the Saints relied heavily on Drew Brees to put up quality numbers last season and it paid off big time. Is it possible to use statistics to see what Campbell's production would be like if he threw a Brees-esque 550 times this year? Lets say Campbell's completion percentage improves to 58% next season, and his yards per attempt improve to 7. If Al Saunders were to call 550+ pass plays for Jason Campbell, we could expect him, very roughly, to throw for about 22 TDs and 19 INTs and about 3850 yards. This season would be very much like Eli Manning's 2006. But this is where the Redskins and Saints arguably differ. Even with Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister, the Saints' best option for offensive success was to drop back and throw 35 times a game. But what if Al Saunders doesn't chase the Saints' offensive blueprint from above. What if he blazes his own trail to find the optimum balance of run and pass for this younger team? Lets say instead of throwing 35 times a game like Brees did, Campbell throws only 30 times a game. Over the course of a season, thats 480 pass attempts. Now lets say that Campbell's rate stats are still 58% and 7 Y/A. If all the above happens, we can reasonably expect about 18 TDs and 16 INTs and about 3360 yards. This is more comparable to Matt Hasselbeck's 2006. But which would be better? To find that answer, we should take a look at the other half of NFL offense, the running game, to see how the Redskins compare with the Saints in that facet of the game. The numbers show a clear cut advantage to one team. Reggie Bush's effect on the running game was minimal in 2006, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. The best back in New Orleans last year was very clearly Deuce McAllister who sports a 4.3 lifetime yards per carry average. But 4.3 is also Ladell Betts' per carry career average, and he's plays a very clear second fiddle to two time all pro RB Clinton Portis, who sports an astounding 4.7 yards/carry for his career. What makes this comparison even more interesting is that Betts and McAllister carried the rock an identical 245 times each last year, and posted nearly identical numbers with Betts producing a few more yards, but McAllister producing more critical first downs and TDs. Now, the Saints ran a lot more plays than the Redskins so they as a team still ran over 400 times last year. But if Al Saunders makes a commitment to the running game, Portis and Betts should be able to combine for at least 450 carries. If Portis and Betts are used to optimal effectiveness, we could expect them to combine for 2000 yards and 20 TDs. This would be significantly better than McAllister and Bush did for New Orleans last year who combined for about 1600 yards and 17 TDs on about 400 carries. Still, if Campbell was only able to complete 58% of his passes for 7 Y/A, the Redskins would likely not be able to duplicate the offense of the 2006 Saints. But with the receivers the Redskins have in Cooley and Moss, and a series of longshots at receiver hoping to become the next Marques Colston, the comparisons to the 2006 Saints are warranted to say the least. Defensively, the Redskins are perfectly capable of performing at the caliber of the 2006 Saints. If nothing else, the Saints have proved that it hardly takes perfection to win ten games in the NFC. And ultimately, the biggest factor for the Saints in 2006 was a series of events that no one could control. They landed Brees and Bush because other teams passed on them. Colston was as reliable as he was obscure. So while on paper the 2007 Redskins appear to be just a shade shy of the talent level of the 2006 Saints on both sides of the ball, there's no reason to think that this team is incapable of duplicating New Orleans' performance on the field this season.