In doing some preliminary work for my 2013 NFL projections, there was a major trend that kept showing up on a division by division basis that will shape the landscape of the NFL season and should have an (positive?) effect on the Redskins, who on their own merits look a lot like last year's team.  What I found was that the traditional NFL powers have some issues on their rosters that would threaten their status as the best teams in the sport.  And while it makes more sense to bet on teams with a track record than those trying to establish one, I didn't feel when I was studying it that the traditional superpowers were traditionally strong.

Let's go around the league and look at some of the key issues for key teams.

New England Patriots

The Patriots rebuilt their offense in 2010 to feature tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, but both players have run into injury issues early in their careers.  And the Patriots have turned over the roster at wide receiver to the point where quarterback Tom Brady may not recognize anyone he's throwing to in Week 1 if he does not play in the preseason.  Brady himself has stayed remarkably healthy in the last four seasons, which alone will keep the Patriots as favorites in the AFC East.

The Patriots have mostly rebuilt the front seven of their defense, but the unit is still very much a patchwork operation, mixing stars in with players who haven't developed yet, and the results have been less than encouraging since the 2007 season.

For New England, it's not a question of them being near the end of their run, because the resources (money and draft picks) are still there for them and it's not like Tom Brady's retirement is imminent.  The question for New England is whether there is enough under contract to make a real run at a championship because if the team has to start running between the tackles to sustain drives (something they know they can do), the Patriots are not the team we've seen over the last five years.  They may still be a very good team, but not a powerhouse.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos loaded up to make a run this year while Peyton Manning is still an impact player in the NFL, and on the surface, the Broncos do appear to be loaded.  Any Peyton Manning offense is based on it's precision, but the Broncos sure appear to have the weapons that the Patriots are lacking from Demaryius Thomas to Eric Decker to Wes Welker.

It's worth pointing out before we laud the Denver receivers too aggressively that none of the above players were particuarly productive prior to playing with Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, at which point it makes sense to stress that since the entire offense is built on its precision, we should not confuse great efficiency for great talent.

And this has always been the fueling factor behind the myth that Manning struggles more in the playoffs than in the regular season.  The machine that is Peyton Manning built the best statistical record of any quarterback in the history of the game off the back of being so much better than his opponents on a week to week basis that it was easy to miss the pure genius in the simplicity of what Manning is doing.  What has always been the case is that when Manning's opponents are more complete teams, you don't see the dominance you see from Manning on many NFL sundays, instead you see a lot of the issues that were there in the roster the whole time.

The Broncos are very much the same team that went 4-12 with Kyle Orton at QB in 2010 and .500 with Tim Tebow at QB.  Manning brings a rare level of dominace and precision to the offense, but when Baltimore beat Denver in the playoffs and went on to win the Super Bowl, the similarities between the playoff performance Manning got from his receivers and defense reminded you in many ways of the Indianapolis days.

The AFC West isn't going to give Manning much of a challenge for it's playoff spot, but the Broncos are again going to have an issue against the best competition in the conference because the roster has many of the same holes from the 2009, 2010, and 2011 seasons in the offensive backfield behind Manning and on the defensive side of the ball.

Houston Texans

Were the Texans exposed at the end of last year? Maybe a bit.  Everything the Texans do offensively is built off the running game.  That running game is as good as it's ever been, and in that sense, the Texans are just fine.  Adding DeAndre Hopkins to the offense is going to give the Texans an extra dimension.  But Matt Schaub looked like a weakness on the team for the first time last season, as we're at the age when his physical skill set starts to come into question a bit.

The bigger issue with Houston causes us to think back three years to the last time the Texans defense wasn't the strength of the team.  In 2010, they had one of the worst defensive units that pro football has ever seen, going a very disappointing 6-10.  News that the Texans signed Ed Reed without knowing about an injury that would need surgery, combined with the knowledge that the Ravens were not all that serious about bringing back their best defensive back leads one to believe that the Texans may not get much out of a critical defensive investment.  The Texans should get Brian Cushing back off injury, JJ Watt is awesome, and Wade Phillips is an excellent defensive coordinator, but the Texans defense has more questions to answer than at any point since their 2011 breakout.

And we know from early on in the Gary Kubiak era that without a strong defense, the Texans are going to lose a lot of games.  If Reed and Cushing are healthy, that shouldn't be an issue, but you can't ever rely on good health in football.

Baltimore Ravens

I debated not even placing the Ravens on this list because they have generally made very good moves this offseason, and the weaknesses are obvious: if they cannot get Joe Flacco to play like he did in the postseason last year and get just an average player at quarterback, the defense already declined a lot last season after a decade of great performance, and replacing what Ray Lewis and Ed Reed gave you, not last year, but two years before, is not the kind of thing that happens naturally.  That they won a super bowl without that contribution tells you a lot about their ability to rebuild on the fly.

I think anyone who saw the playoff run knows this all comes down to Flacco (and Bernard Pierce/Ray Rice/Torrey Smith/Dennis Pitta) to replace that production.  So far, so good.  But Flacco's career stats have been very spotty, and while he's being paid like the player the Ravens need, he also needs to play like the player he is being paid to be.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers did not go to the playoffs last season, and this is a team that isn't going to turn around without something giving them a boost, likely from the outside.  Something like OLB Jarvis Jones making the AFC North offenses look like those out of the SEC.  It's always hard for me to tell when a team is about to crash, and if I had to guess, I would bet on marginal improvement from the Steelers over a drop to the dregs of the league.  In full disclosure, I thought the Steelers would win the AFC last season, and they were an average team.

But one thing that has played out in the last couple seasons is that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger -- playing the best football of his career -- hasn't been able to keep a hurt, injured, old team from bad losses the way that the Peyton Manning Colts or Drew Brees Saints have been able to.  So as Roethlisberger ages, it's hard to look at him as a possible reason that the Steelers will stay on top.  When Pittsburgh is done, they'll be done.

Atlanta Falcons

A study of the Atlanta Falcons roster shows that the five best players on this team would make up a heck of a fantasy football roster: QB Matt Ryan, RB Steven Jackson, WRs Julio Jones and Roddy White, and TE Tony Gonzalez.  Beyond those offensive skill players, this is not a good team.  In fact, it's two highest rated defensive players by Pro Football Focus in 2012 were DT John Abraham and DT Vance Walker.  Neither will be back next season.  It's best offensive lineman, Tyson Clabo, and best DB in 2011, Brent Grimes, are both with the Dolphins.  Center Todd McClure retired.  And the Falcons had a major problem with tackling last season.

Now, this is a team that has been the NFC's top seed twice in the last three seasons, so you don't want to completely write off the Falcons, but it is difficult to see them back in the postseason without great production from ALL the offensive skill positions because that is where the strength of this team is built around.

New York Giants

The Giants have been the NFC's premier team in the Eli Manning era, a designation they earned with two super bowl titles, as well as given by the consistent failures of the Eagles, Cowboys, and Redskins.  But I do think we've reached a point where they are no longer the NFC's premier franchise, and probably lack the horses to compete now that we are six years removed from the transistion of power from the old school Ernie Accorsi, to the slightly less old school Jerry Reese.

Reese has made some really good draft picks, most notably Jason Pierre-Paul and Hakeem Nicks in consecutive years, but getting Victor Cruz into the receiver rotation in 2011 may have been more desperation than anything brilliant, and the Giants' talent level has been steadily whittled away since they won the Championship two years ago, particularly on defense.  Eli Manning has played championship-level quarterback in years the Giants have struggledd on defense before, and he can do it again, but if everything goes right for the Redskins, that shouldn't matter.  They have more horses in the stable, particularly on the defensive side of the football, than the Giants do.

QB - RG3, Cousins

Surprise cut - Rex Grossman

Rationale - though with a recovering QB you should have 3 QBs, no team is rushing to take Grossman.  You can cut him and leave him off the roster and very likely get him back when needed.  Also - Jordan Reed has college QB experience.  Maybe they can sneak Pat White onto the Practice Squad - not sure if he is eligible again.

RBs -  Morris, Thompson, Jamison  (and Darrell Young FB)

Surprise cut - Roy Helu

Rationale -  I believe Helu gets cut as he'll likely show injury after they pound him with carries during the preseason.  The Redskins are far weaker at Wide Receiver and the secondary than at RB.  Royster is already outside looking in.

Starting Offensive Line - Williams, Lichtensteiger, Montgomery, Chester, Pashos

Backups -  Compton, Gettis, LaRibeus, Polumbus.

Surprise cut - Tyler Polumbus gets cut from the starting Right Tackle position.  I also see him on the edge of getting cut from the team.

Rationale - Polumbus is a liability during pass protection.  It's hard to justify 9 O-Lineman.  At the same time, it's not Coach Shanny's style to cut a starter and they appreciate the continuity on the line. 

I also see Gettis making a push against Chester later this year.  If Pashos can fend off 'Rak attacks during training camp, he wins over Compton to start the year.  The more likely Cousins starts or RG3 starts pocket passing, the more they need Pashos over Polumbus and Compton.

LaRibeus took a step back after his numerous 7 course meals during the offseason (a six pack and a mega-burger).

TE -  Davis, Paulsen, Paul, Reed. 

Rationale -  Patriots offense here we dabble.  Niles Paul will have a breakout year.  He is one of the most underrated Redskins on the team.  I'm growing to like the Reed pick more and more as I see how the WR's were totally manhandled by Seattle.

WR -  Garcon, Morgan, Hankerson, Moss, Robinson, and a 6th receiver to be determined.

Rationale - Even though Niles Paul and Jordan Reed are TE's that are really WR's as well, I think the Redskins still try to keep 6 WRs.  The reason is we all remember how horrible they looked for 3 quarters against the Seahawks in the playoffs and how awful they all were against the Steelers.  A strong healthy showing from Helu will kill the 6th WR position.

All the existing wide receivers will look better this year either due to health (Morgan, Garcon), improvement at the game (Hankerson, Robinson), QB play improvement (Moss - he was open SO MANY times and RG3 rarely got to that read - that changes this year) and due to the entire offense gelling better their second year together.

I think Robinson needs yet another year to really break out, but he will be much better and hopefully the Shanahan's use him more this year.  I get the suspicion that Robinson is like the dumb blonde of the bunch - the most beautiful to watch but dumb as a doornail (I hate to say it, he's one of my favorite players and I hope it isn't true).  If that's true, he'll need yet another year to really know the playbook and routes and learn a few juke moves.  Nonetheless, people forget how incredibly strong he is - there is no reason he can't block and be on the field and targeted much more this year.  But don't expect him to chew gum, be a WR and learn to be a kickoff returner at the same time.

Whoever the 6th receiver is, he will be one of the inconsistent leftovers who will not drop a pass during training camp or the preseason games.  Again, the 6th receiver is competing directly against Helu for a roster spot.  New Special Teams Coach Burns will also have a big say - if the 6th receiver is a special teams return beast, he's in.

The offensive roster needs to be relatively trim to make room for Chase Minnifield and a possible return from Tanard Jackson.  Special teams is also a wildcard here if Potter is added for kickoffs and/or a return specialist is added.

Total:  23 - 25 Roster Players.

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Caption: Donte' Stallworth rejoins the Redskins.

I learned in the I/T business that when you upgrade one part of a computer system, you expose the next weakness in that system. That is the state of the Washington Redskins today. With fixes perhaps in place in the secondary and improved health of defensive players, the Redskins must do something about its next area of weakness, wide receivers.

Hog Heaven covered the topic a few days ago when we ranked Washington's receivers third-best in the division (see Cowboys receivers are most beast of the NFC East). That story didn't get much play among Redskins fans, although it got a lot of hits from Texas. The coaching staff is not ignoring the issue. They have made some moves.

The front office went to the local rent-a-receiver store and checked out Devery Henderson and Donte' Stallworth. Henderson spent his entire career with the New Orleans Saints. The well travelled Stallworth sold his talents to six teams, including the Redskins in 2011 (22 Recs, 2 TDs). Both players are over age 30. Both must be considered journeymen on the downward arc of their career.

Hog Heaven does not look for both to make the final roster. Nor would either of them force a defensive coordinator to game plan them. Of receivers now on the roster, Aldrick Robinson appears on paper to be most vulnerable to losing his spot to one of them.

The coaches might suspect that Santana Moss has lost a step. I have to see that to believe it. Moss turned 34 on June 1. (Happy belated birthday, 'Tana.) He has been far more productive than Henderson and Stallworth. I'd like to see him on the team for sentimental reasons  and to continue to mentor young players. Moss seems to do things the right way.

The Redskins have looked for 1000-yard receivers since the Hogs days. Sometimes, we got lucky with a Henry Ellard who found new life in Washington, or with Albert Connell who had one real hot season. The team has not had a true No. 2 receiver since Rod Gardner. Who would have thought we would miss Gardner?

Maybe Robinson and Hankerson will grow into legitimate No. 2 wide-outs. If not, Stallworth or Henderson might be stopgaps.  If both Stallworth and Henderson make the roster, we are in real trouble at wide receiver.

Some stories about other teams are just too good to pass up!

It reads like the start of a bad joke. "A duck goes into a bar and orders a drink."

A priest, a rabbi a duck and Tim Tebow walk in to the New England Patriots and ask for a football. Bill Belichick looks up and says, "What is this. A joke?"

But seriously folks, SI.com reports that the Patriots have already signed free agent quarterback Tim Tebow and expect him to be in mandatory minicamp tomorrow.

The last time Belichick and the Patriots saw Tebow in game action was the Divisional Playoff Round following the 2011 season. The Patriots walloped the Tebow-Broncos 43-10 to end Denver's magical season. The Broncos closed the regular season with a three-game losing streak. The Pats kicked off that streak by beating the Broncos at home 41-23.

Belichick, or OC Mike McCoy, must see something in Tebow. I wish I knew what that is.

The move does not threaten Tom Brady nor, I suspect, back-up QB Ryan Mallett. New England is very concerned about the health of TE Rob Gronkowski. Has Tebow finally agreed to switch to tight end to extend his career?

No one has ever seen Tebow catch a ball in a game, so that idea could be another joke. It's no joke that there is something magic about Tebow that just might be Divine. An earlier story on the  This Given Sunday blog reported that the New York Jets could be in trouble at quarterback. The entertainment just keeps rolling from the AFC East.

Bloggers love this. We aren't above trolling for readers. These stories just keep writing themselves.  And the best part is that it doesn't involve the Redskins.     

@skinshogheaven ...and the duck says "STOP COMPARING ME TO TEBOW'S THROWS!!!!"

— Randy Jobst (@Randyljobst) June 10, 2013

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Why do they always show these quarterbacks RUNNING? Because video football LOVES a running quarterback, that's why.

This video trailer shows game action from Madden 25. It features Adrian Peterson, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III, of course.

Hail
 

Jawan Jamison is in many ways another Alfred Morris-like story waiting to happen.

Whereas Alfred Morris is a slower model of Walter Payton, Jawan Jamison is a slower Barry Saunders knock-off model.   

At 5'7" 200 pounds, this guy is a powerful small package.  What I like best about him is his one-cut running, his ability to juke defenders in the open field, his ability to stay hidden behind the offensive line until it's too late, and the fact that the only way you can tackle him is by the ankles or a gang tackle.  I believe he is faster than his 40 time suggests, especially given that his last year in school he ran with ankle problems.

Here's how he compares to Alfred:

1) Likeability and heart ‒ you want a guy the offensive line likes and is ready to die for.  That was the John Riggins lesson.  While Alfred is as likeable a football player as it gets, Jamison left school for the pros to help support his sick mom.  That puts him in a rare class.  

For me, every single Alfred Morris run is like watching a Rocky movie - pure heart and determination against the odds.  Jamison isn't quite like that, but he is on a great mission that isn't far off. 

2) Durability ‒ Jamison is pretty solid.  I don't know of too many 5'7" guys that bench 220 pounds 20 times.  The key point of his durability is that Chris Thompson and Roy Helu are not guys you give the rock 20 plus times a game.  Jamison is really the only legitimate durable Morris backup in the mix, that's why he makes the team (plus we will see him run 100 yard plus games in the preseason).

3) Screen game/passing game ‒ Jamison is great for screen passes out the backfield (though note the Redskins, except on bootlegs, were horrible at screen passes last year).  He's also a great blocker and can even pass the ball.

Jamison is a faster runner than Alfred Morris.  

Where Jamison will suffer is that he is relatively easy to tackle in the backfield.  That is the weakness of his game and he will be dependent upon the total effectiveness of the offensive line off the line.  We are spoiled by Alfred Morris in his ability to almost always break the first tackle so we did not have to watch him get tackled in the backfield.

Of course the biggest weakness for Jamison breaking out is that Alfred is already on the team, so his carries will be limited in comparison.  Don't be surprised to see Jamison moving the chains 20 plus yards at a time a couple times a game, which is a gigantic success by any standard and would make him an Alfred Morris story in his own right.
 

The reputation of the Beast was born in the 1980s through mid-‘90s when Super Bowls were won by the San Francisco 49ers and whoever won the NFC East.

That was oh so last century. The NFC Beast is still considered a competitive division. The New York Giants restored some of its luster, but no one calls the Beast toughest in the league anymore.

Every Beast team has questionable secondaries. Its O-lines are not the muscular, dominant units of Gibbs and Parcells. There’s one other area where NFC East teams are not so beastly – wide receiver.

Long time Hog Heaven readers are familiar with our 6-7-8-9-10-11 benchmark for evaluating receiving corps. It’s a memory device for measuring a team’s No. 2 and the No. 1 receiver. The benchmark applies to wide receivers only. Tight ends do not count

The benchmark order is Receptions-Touchdowns-Yards. A No. 2 wide-out should deliver 60 catches, seven touchdowns and 800 yards for his team. The No. 1 receiver should deliver 90 catches, 10 TDs and 1,100 yards. The more overage, the better the performance. The greater the shortfall, the poorer the performance.

Hog Heaven took a second look at the 2012 stats for NFC East receivers. Well, what else is there to do between the NFL Draft and training camp?

To go by the 6-7-8-9-10-11 benchmark, NFC East receivers were not very beastly, with one exception. Dez Bryant delivered the best Cowboys receiver performance since Terrell Owens in 2007. The 13-3 Cowboys won the division (and then were ambushed by the Giants in route to a Super Bowl win).   

Bryant’s growth makes Dallas the biggest threat to Washington’s defense of its division crown.

Duck and cover.

Hog Heaven readers are gagging over that one sentence. I understand, but Dallas stands out in performance against the benchmark. It takes only a modest projection for the 2013 season to see the Cowboys passing game as the division’s most formidable, especially against Beastly secondaries.

Bill Belichick’s two tight end sets are changing the passing game. Former Broncos GM Ted Sundquist wrote that teams began to upgrade tight ends because they presented better value as receivers than wide receivers. So Hog Heaven is throwing in raw stats for tight ends, but not measuring them against the benchmark. Tight ends are icing on the cake. There still must be cake. Here’s a synopsis of NFC East receivers against the benchmark.

Dallas Cowboys

Dez Bryant’s refusal to carry Roy Williams helmet during his rookie preseason always troubled me. Whatever his potential, Williams hadn’t paid his dues to refuse the Cowboys initiation into their football family. Bryant was clearly drafted to replace Williams who would carry his under-performance to the Bears. Ironically, it was Bryant’s family assault charge that might have cleared his head.

It took something big to make the point to Bryant. Assaulting your mother is never excusable, but Bryant’s background is uniquely troubling. He twisted his head straight just in time to have a monster season. Bryant is the only Beast receiver to hit the No. 1 benchmarks (9-10-11). Miles Austin hit the No. 2 benchmarks.

How dare Hog Heaven call TE Jason Witten the Cowboys’ weak point when he caught 110 passes, 73 percent of the balls thrown to him. Well, three touchdowns out of 150 attempts to him is failure of the first order. No wonder Tony Romo will have a larger voice in forming game plans and OC Bill Callahan will call the plays.

We aren’t awarding the division to Dallas, but we don’t think Bryant’s performance is a fluke. A Cowboys improvement over their 8-8 record is easily achievable.    

New York Giants

Sez here that Victor Cruz wants to be paid like a No. 1 receiver, but that the Giants consider Hakeem Nicks No. 1 and they want to pay Cruz like the No. 2 man. The Giants better take a second look at the chart above.

Only Robert Griffin III’s knee is more questionable within the division than Nicks’ knee. Nicks barely met some of the benchmarks for a No. 1 in 2010 and 2011. He was short of the No. 2 benchmarks last season. When Nicks is healthy and on his game, he and Cruz may be the best one-two punch of all Beast receivers. Knees and hands are the two big question marks about him.

The Giants run a good organization. They have talent to seize the division when rivals fail. Hog Heaven expects they will resolve contract issues for both players. We don’t see Nicks wasting his contract year either. That’s good news for the Giants, bad news to the division.

Washington Redskins

Santana Moss, Photo credit: Ed Sheahin, Twitter: @NFLSkins

Santana Moss shall go down as one of the greatest Redskins receivers in history, but shouldn’t Leonard Hankerson or Joshua Morgan show up as No. 2 instead of Moss? Yes. Yes they should have. Therein lays our quandary.

Washington won the division with the 20^th-ranked passing offense in yards. Yards aren’t the complete story. The Redskins tied for 13^th for passing scores, in good company with the 49ers, Seahawks and Ravens. Robert Griffin III made everyone, including the coaches, look better. The ball-control ground game hid shortfalls in the receiving corps. Defenses will adjust. They always do.

Washington’s top two receivers failed the Hog Heaven benchmark. Yes, injuries took their toll, but when you project Pierre Garćon’s stats to a full year’s performance, the numbers (70 receptions, 6 TDs, 1012 yards) are still short of the benchmark. At least Garćon shows better on video than on paper. If Moss again shows up as the second best receiver, something is seriously wrong with the rest of the receiving corps.

Roll Fred Davis’ and Logan Paulsen’s stats together and you match Brent Celek’s (Phi) performance. Tight end performance is not part of this benchmark, but that’s where the Redskins can make up for shortfalls elsewhere. We are waiting for a true breakout season by Fred Davis. This has to be the year.

Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid was doomed before the season started. Watching the Eagles slow motion train wreck was painful, and I say that as a Redskins fan. Losing left tackle Jason Peters for the season rolled through the Eagles like diarrhea. They left a trail of stink everywhere.

Nick Foles’ audition matched Michael Vick’s passing performance. That was easy because Vick wasn’t very good. Philly lost 15 rushing touchdowns in 2012 from LeSean McCoy’s 2011 scoring. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin were far from the dynamic receivers they once were.

Peters is back, but Reid is gone. New head coach Chip Kelly left the Oregon Ducks ahead of NCAA investigations. Neither the Eagles nor their fans care about that. What they want is for Kelly to install that potent offense he employed at Oregon.

He has the tools to do it. Philadelphia’s O-line should be healthier if nothing else. Kelly can make the most of Shady McCoy. We don’t know his choice for quarterback, but Kelly is a second chance, of sorts, for Vick.

Neither Dan Reeves nor Jim Mora could transform Vick into a pro passer. The Falcons imported college coach Bobby Petrino to install a college offense Vick could run. Vick’s midnight hobby, the real reason he failed with Reeves and Mora, caught up with him. He never had the chance to run Petrino’s offense.

Enter another college coach and Vick gets another crack at that situation. Or not. Kelly saw Foles in the PAC-12, usually during Oregon’s kick-butt wins over Arizona. Vick and Foles split time with the first team during the OTAs. Either Kelly hasn’t made his choice about quarterback, or he’s following the Jets’ lead and sending a message to last year’s starter, and to everyone else (Looking at you, DeSean Jackson).

That makes it impossible to project anything about Eagles receivers before preseason. Kelly has to show his his scheme, pick a quarterback, mix in the run game, which will be different than Reid’s run-pass mix, and then he must jiggle pass distribution to the receivers.

Philadelphia’s receivers are capable, but there are too many moving parts to guess how much better they might be, or how much time they need to do it. That’s why I ranked them last.

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