BCS Champion Alabama Crimson Tide recruited Chris Samuels for a second run in his college career, this time as the assistant offensive line coach on Nick Saban's staff. WaPOST's Mike Jones broke the story on The Insider yesterday.
Samuels, a fan favorite and six-time Pro Bowler for the Washington Redskins, was named a first team All-America and first team All-SEC selectee for the Crimson Tide. He won the 1999 Outland Trophy presented annually to the best college offensive lineman.
“I learned a lot from the Redskins and the Shanahans,” Samuels added. “They taught me a lot about how to shift different personnel groupings in, setting up plays, different concepts in the passing game...I thought it would be easy to do all that, but it’s not....Now to go up to Alabama, they’re very successful coaches, and coach Saban is one of the hot coaches around. It’s definitely going to be a blessing for me.”
Shanahan and Saban? Not Gibbs and Bugel?
Gibbs and Buges link to Samuels' playing days. Samuels spent the 2010 season as a coaching intern on Mike Shanahan's staff. Samuels has said that he would like to make a career of coaching. If he wants to coach in the NFL, he should make the jump to the pros early. College football and pro football are the same sport, but they are not the same game.
Samuels and Saban yesterday visited Shanahan and the Redskins' coaching staff at the practice for the South team in the 2012 Senior Bowl.
Future Redskins head coach candidate?
It worked for Russ Grimm. Oh. Wait. No it didn't.
They are burying Joe Pa today. What an exit.
Joe Paterno's misfortune is that he passed away before the final chapters of his story are written. Paterno is not around to answer the great mystery of the Jerry Sandusky scandal that roils Pennsylvania State University.
That mystery is this, how did an incident described by eyewitness and assistant coach Mike McQueary as the appearance of sex with a child morph to a description of "horsing around?"
Rape requires aggressive intervention. Horsing around demands aggressive supervision. Paterno is the nexus of the question. His full, cross-examined testimony at trial could have informed how to judge Penn State executives Tim Curley and Gary Schultz.
Paterno's legacy will be forever plagued by the Richard Nixon question: What did he know and when did he know it?
Penn State fired Curley, the athletic director, and Schultz, vice president of business and development, after a Grand Jury indicted the pair for perjury. The grand jury found the pair not credible and uncooperative.
McQueary denies ever describing the 2002 Sandusky incident as anal sex, but saw circumstantial, visual evidence that suggests that very act. (Um, WHAT?)
Paterno said he did not quite comprehend what McQuery described to him, but informed Curley that McQueary was quite shaken by whatever it was. I suspect Paterno's age played a role—not his calendar age, but his coming of age. Such matters were always hidden in the 1940s when Paterno reached his manhood and for decades thereafter.
When Paterno said he did not know what to do, he may well have been stumpted.
Penn State President Graham Spanier expressed support for Curley and Schultz immediately after the grand jury indictments. Had he learned nothing from the Catholic Church scandals where the hierarchy appeared clueless—and calloused—about child endangerment?
Molesting little boys was a crime. Covering it up was the scandal that did lasting damage. The Church is a values institution whose cover-up betrayed its teaching about children [Matthew 19:14] and choices [Mark 8:36].
Gordon Gee did the same in the unfolding swag for tats scandal at Ohio State, thereby impugning the sense that OSU could be trusted to investigate isself. Prof. Spanier, meet Prof. Gee.
We do not know what Sandusky did, only what is alleged. We sense that the University hid something, perhaps for fear of offending Paterno. Penn State's football revenue exceeds $100 million per year. Joe Paterno was the one man whose one word would have made it Ok to have a full investigation of whatever occurred in the athletics building. At the critical moment, and counter to everything he stood for, Joe Paterno passed the buck.
Penn State's alumni, especially the football alumni, are irate that the university dumped Paterno so abruptly. They should be cautious. It only means one thing when the four top executives of a values institution are swept from office for failing to provide oversight. I think that university Trustees know it and, by now, know what that will be.
It might be that Paterno is in a better place.
no comments
John Wooden's admonition that more games are lost than won applies to the Baltimore Ravens this morning. The Ravens had the favored New England Patriots on the ropes in yesterday's AFC Title game. Baltimore outgained New England by 42 offensive yards and dominated time of possession 33:33 to 26:27. Joe Flacco flat outplayed Tom Brady.
Baltimore's last shot ended when kicker Billy Cundiff's chip shot field goal attempt missed wide left. Cundiff must feel terrible this morning, but he had help losing the game.
Two plays earlier, wide receiver Lee Evans had the game-winning touchdown in his hands before DB Sterling Moore stripped it away. Baltimore's O-line failed to measure up. New England laid three sacks, five tackles for losses and seven quarterback hits on the Ravens.
When Baltimore signed Lee Evans, I believed that the Washington Redskins missed the shot to upgrade its receiving corps. Evans delivered a nice performance on the day up until his fourth-quarter flub. His three receptions nearly duplicated his entire regular season performance (4 receptions, 79 yards) and his missed catch would have been his first score of the season.
Washington got a better performance from Jabar Gaffney who, like Rex Grossman, had the best year of his career in Mike Shanahan's offense. Gaffney's 68 receptions and five touchdowns profile him as a good No. 2 wide receiver on any other team. The No. 1 wide receiver on a pro team should deliver 90 receptions and 10 touchdowns.
Fans appreciate Gaffney's performance and effort, but the entire passing game—passing, catching, blocking— was not good enough to compete in the NFL East. Nothing about Evan's performance in the title game or over the season suggests that he would have been better than Gaffney. I don't think the Bills miss Evans much, either.
New England DT Vince Wilfork had a monster day at nose tackle, which got me wondering. Why did Bill Belichick need Albert Haynesworth in the first place? Can we all agree now that the Tennessee Titans made Haynesworth great and not the other way around?
Belichick did what Mike Shanahan did not do in 2010. He dumped Haynesworth as soon as it became clear that he was not a contributor.
I feel badly for ex-Redskins DE Andre Carter, a major contributor to the Pats' success. He is finally on a Super Bowl team, but injury prevents him from playing. Good guy. Good player. Deserved to go. Another former 'Skins player who starts for another Super Bowl caliber team.
Washington gets good players—and good coaches. Something happens to them when they get here; something about how they are managed. The Redskins title drought has more to do with boring organizational flaws than with the athletes.
Three of the four teams in the conference title games are known for stability in the front office and the coaching staff. Those owners pick the right people in the first place and stick with them in good times and bad. Toughening it out in the bad times is part of the process.
Just saying.
Rivalry? What rivalry?
Hog Heaven has been a consistent denier of a Ravens-Redskins rivalry. We argue that any resemblance of such has more to do with Baltimore's cultural antipathy to Washington that predates the Civil War. That one-sided feeling expresses itself in both football and baseball. And we always said it was one-sided. Most of the Baltimoronic statements about it betray an inferiorty complex that I never understood. I like Baltimore, especially the Inner Harbor waterfront.
There is some canard that Jack Kent Cooke had somethind to do with keeping the NFL out of Baltimore after the Colts abandoned the city. I defy anyone to find a single shred of evidence of that. Most of the origins of this unrequited rivalry lay in Baltimore's proud blue collar heritage and the Washington area's white collar government class. Hey, we didn't vote all those people here because...District of columbia residents cannot vote.
Things may be changing. There was lots of discussion on sports talk radio on whether it is proper for Redskins fans to root for the Ravens against the Patriots. It was a silly thought. The Ravens loss does no more to make the Redskins better than sweeping the Giants makes the Redskins better. Either way, Washington lost to nine of 13 teams they faced. The Redskins have to win fan allegiance on their own.
If fans have an adult memory of the Redskins last Super Bowl win after the 1992 season, then they are lifers even if they now keep their wallets shut. Anyone under age 39 is fair game for Baltimore and every other NFL team, thanks to the Internet.
That's the way it's supposed to be. Allegiance is more than customer loyalty. Baltimore may win DC customer loyalty for a period until the Redskins start winning again. If the Redskins keep losing, some of that Ravens loyalty will (and should) flip to fan allegiance and the 'Skins will never get them back. Winning keeps that from happening. After a decade of Snyderrato, even diehards know how hard that is to do. There are no short cuts to building perennial contenders. it cannot be properly done in one or three seasons. You do it by taking the right steps over time, like Baltimore has done since their arrival in Maryland.
Next year, the Redskins should forget about sweeping the Giants. Win all the home games instead. The Ravens are on the home schedule, by the way.
And that's just the defense. Mike Shanahan can't go any longer coaching an offense that turns the ball over as often as it scores touchdowns. You just can't survive in the NFL that way, and frankly, you have to be a "somebody" to have survived a 30 game turnover streak, particularly since every coach that ever did survive such a performance almost certainly had to concede to fire their offensive coordinator in order to get another crack at it. Shanahan got started early shaping his 2012 offense, deciding to protect WR Aldrick Robinson over RB Ryan Torain, which was probably an intelligent (if ultimately meaningless) decision. To fix this offense, tough decisions may need to be made with the only Redskins to have played on the 2005 team that won a playoff game: Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and Mike Sellers. Tough decisions may need to be made with Jammal Brown, who the team gave up a fourth round pick to acquire and then signed to a long-term deal, and with Tim Hightower, who is coming off surgery to repair an ACL and the Redskins gave up a 6th round pick to acquire.
The alternative to the idea that the Redskins have begun to value their draft picks is that the three players they gave up picks for were Donovan McNabb, Tim Hightower, and Jammal Brown (and if you want to be liberal with the definition of 'gave up picks for,' add Roy Helu). On the plus side, they were successful at improving the running back position for their efforts.
Anyway, the past record may end up irrelevant. The fact that the Redskins haven't been good under the Shanaplan does not mean that it will never work. But I will go as far as saying that if they can't get it right in the offseason leading up to the draft, then it is safe to say it will never work. The 2012 offseason is pivotal in that way.
I will examine the Redskins unrestricted free agents, and look at who the Redskins need back next year and who they can let walk.
London Fletcher
On May 19th, London Fletcher will turn 37. Training camp will still be two months away.
There is probably no 37 year old in the league who means as much to his team at London Fletcher. Peyton Manning will be 36 in March. If he plays, there is an argument to be made for Ray Lewis being more important to the Ravens than London Fletcher to the Redskins, but I'm not even sure that is accurate at this point. For argument and comparison only, here is a list of 36+ year olds and the approximate value of their 2011 seasons. Here is a similar list over a three year span.
The lists are clear in one thing: in Fletcher, we are talking about a player who is more comparable to Ray Lewis than to any other player at his age or older. Unlike Lewis, Fletcher is not openly considering retirement and is argably aging better than Lewis is.
So what might Fletcher cost? According to rotoworld.com, this deal was signed by a veteran (formerly of an NFC East team) on February 28th, 2009:
2/28/2009: Signed a five-year, $17 million contract. The deal includes $7.2 million guaranteed. Another $10 million is available via performance incentives. 2011-2013: $6 million, 2014: Free Agent
That contract was signed by Brian Dawkins, who turned 36 that Fall. A $7 million guarantee sounds like a minimum for keeping Fletcher in town, meaning that a contract to him will probably be at least three years. If it is longer than three years, that will just be for cap purposes, though the Redskins under Bruce Allen have shown no propensity to use contractual dummy years to lessen the cap hit of free agent contracts.
There is reason to believe Fletcher can put up a good season or two under a new contract, though once we reach 2014 (assuming Fletcher still wants to play), you're talking about an incredibly abbreviated number of quality starter seasons since the merger by non-quarterbacks, and the list itself is almost exclusively comprised of hall of famers. Former Redskin Ray Brown was pretty much the only post-merger exception to the rule, who continued to play 16 game seasons late into his 40s and managed to be a quality reserve on the 2004 and 2005 Redskin teams. The lesson is it doesn't matter how well London Fletcher takes care of his body, we're now down to the last season or two seasons of a great career (I'll put my money on two seasons).
So a three year contract with seven million guaranteed, I think you're looking at a total value of about $16 to $18 million in total value with $5.5 or $6 million (non-guaranteed) in the last season of the deal which Fletcher is unlikely to see due to anticipated retirement. So for his age 37 and 38 seasons, the Redskins need to pay Fletcher about $6 million per season (which is actually a higher annual value than he signed for back in 2007), and guarantee him his 2012 salary (around $5 million). So if the deal is structured salaries of $5 million-$5 million-$6 million, then either the Redskins should guarantee $2 million of Fletcher's second year salary, or add a $2 million signing bonus in the deal. Doing it the former way gives the Redskins protection against Fletcher's retirement. Doing it the latter way gives the Redskins a bit more flexibility if Fletcher struggles.
The real issue here is that the Redskins have had a bunch of chances to work out a reasonable Fletcher extension, and never bothered to initiate contract discussions. His age had plenty to do with that I'm sure, but the rumblings that have come out of the Fletcher camp sound a lot like a lot of past players who have left the Redskins with some hard feelings. I think Fletcher will be back, but I think he's more likely to look for best offer than people think.
LaRon Landry
In the case of LaRon Landry, we have the kind of deal where the player is dealing with a potentially serious injury for the first time in his football career, and he's not handling it all that well. LaRon Landry may not lack durability so much as he lacks common sense. Conversely, since I'm not close enough to his personal situation to speak with great information, Landry may be acting in his personal best interest, and may simply have a durability issue. If the Redskins don't know better, they'll need to treat it like a durability issue. They may no better. This analysis will assume we're dealing with a player who has an injury history.
The best option here is the franchise tag. The market value for a player of Landry's quality who is just shy of 28 years old comes out to between $6-8 million dollars per season. Michael Huff got a deal last year that payed him $32 million dollars over four seasons, and $16 million in the first year of the deal (mostly a signing bonus). Landry is a better, more valuable player than Michael Huff. Though no safety is likely to receive the percentage of guaranteed money Huff got from the Raiders (which was out of line with the market), $8 million dollars a year for a young, talented safety with a good resume is not obscene, it's market value.
Landry would essentially have to sign a contract that allows a team to get away from him after one year. Antrel Rolle's contract with the Giants was 5 years/$37 million. Landry, even on a bad foot, is a better player. Rolle is just over two years older than Landry and hit the market two years ago. If the market believes they are getting a player who will be in the pro bowl sooner rather than late. Still, compare him to the Atogwe contract: if Landry hits the market, it's going to cost at least ten to twelve million in first year money (signing bonus plus salary) to get his signiture. To date, Landry's career looks like the start of Bob Sanders' career or John Lynch's career. Landry's career path can still fall anywhere between his best years being in the rear view mirror to having a kind of borderline hall of fame case with multiple pro bowls and maybe an all-pro season in there.
The projected franchise tag value for a safety in 2012, according to Football Outsiders' Brian McIntyre, is between $6.2 and $6.5 million. If the Redskins are for any reason not sold long term on Landry, it would be absolutely inexcusable to not put the franchise tag on him for 2012 -- unless of course the Redskins are actively looking to be rid of him. Performance wise, Landry is probably the best player on the defense when healthy. There's a lot of things he cannot do. He can not cover anyone man to man. He can not stay healthy. He doesn't always have a great frame of mind for the mental side of the game (celebrates too many tackles on opponents' succesful plays). And at the end of the day, his coverage range and physical presence are every bit as important to the team as London Fletcher's leadership and consistency are.
At the end of the day, Landry will be more difficult to replace than the next guy on this list, who at least may be a better player right now.
Fred Davis
The franchise tag value for a tight end has been estimated between $5.4 to 5.7 million. That's cheaper than a safety tender, but the Redskins' aim should be to avoid the franchise tag with Fred Davis and get an extension done.
Comparable contracts? Greg Olsen signed an extension with the Panthers for 5 years/$24.7 million. Jason Witten signed for 5 years/$37 million with $19 million guaranteed. Marcedes Lewis signed for Jacksonville for 5 years/$35 million, with a guaranteed figure for a TE of $17 million. Vernon Davis signed for 6 years/$42.7 million with $23 million guaranteed before the 2010 season. Kellen Winslow signed for 6 years/$36 million with $20 million guaranteed before the 2009 season. Cooley's deal was (and is) 6 years/$30 million prior to 2007. Cooley will make about $4 million a year these next two years. The average annual value of a Fred Davis contract will need to exceed that.
Every player on that list except Witten was drafted in the first round, which I'm sure pressure their teams to keep them and commit to them. There is a good chance the Redskins can get Davis locked up with a deal that doesn't neccessarily approach those other deals. But the average value of those contracts ranges from $5 million a year to a little over $7 million a year. The Fred Davis contract will certainly fall into that range.
I think 5 years/$27.5 million (identical to the Jammal Brown deal) probably gets it done as long as the Redskins guarantee Davis about 40% of the contract (which comes out to $12 or $12.5 million -- much more than the Brown deal). You're looking at a signing bonus of $5 million, a guaranteed first year salary of about $4 million and about $3 or $3.5 million of his second year salary to be guaranteed with some money tied up in roster bonuses in years 3-5, plus incentives.
In case you are wondering, the amount of cap space it will take to have Landry under the franchise tag with the two proposed contracts to Davis and Fletcher comes out to $17 or $17.5 million under the 2012 cap to keep all three of them.
Adam Carriker
Carriker is unlikely to command a huge contract, as something like 3 years/$9 million or 2 years/$8 million likely gets his signature. But if he's going to be a reserve, it's worth questioning if that's worth it. Carriker proved in his time with Washington that he's a viable player to teams that play a true two-gap 30 front, which makes him an attractive option to a number of teams who have a hole in their roster at the DT position.
If Carriker is looking for $4 million in a signing bonus, he's going to cost about $3 to 3.5 million on the 2012 cap. That's a backup QB committment, but maybe not so much for a defensive lineman.
I think Carriker will be out there on the market for a long time, and I could see him returning to Washington if other teams who bring him in for a visit end up going in a different direction. The need for a player like Carriker on the roster is there. But the Redskins aren't going to get in a bidding war for him.
Will Montgomery
Montgomery is among a ton of centers in free agency this year and will get buried amongst much bigger names. The best name was John Sullivan of the Vikings, but he's been signed long-term. Dan Koppen of the Patriots, Matt Birk of the Vikings, Scott Wells of the Packers, Jeff Saturday of the Colts, Casey Wiegmann of the Chiefs, Samson Satele of the Raiders, and Chris Myers of the Texans all have expiring contracts. Add to that list Olin Kreutz, formerly of the Saints, and at least temporarily retired. That's six pro bowlers, and one of the two guys that isn't a pro bowler (Myers) might be the best of that bunch. Mike Shanahan drafted Chris Myers. He also traded him.
What could make it harder to retain Montgomery is if Kreutz, Birk, Saturday, Wiegmann, and perhaps even Koppen (though unlikely) all have played their last down in 2011. If the NFL loses all those guys to retirement, now the free agency class looks like 1) Myers, 2) Wells, 3) Montgomery and all of a sudden there are more than three teams with a need at center. But if some of their teams retain their veterans, it's unlikely that Will Montgomery will receive a starter offer elsewhere.
Kedric Golston
Golston becomes a really interesting case. With Carriker likely to receive offers to play for other teams, it's worth pointing out that in 2011, Golston was a more effective player on a down by down basis than Carriker was. This is a guy who was awful in 2010 and lost his starting job for 2011. Now he might make the most sense to be brought back on another one-year deal to provide depth.
In a perfect world, the Redskins could spend $2 million in cap space and have both Golston and Carriker back in 2012 as backup defensive lineman, providing the unit the depth it needs pending one rookie DE to come out of the draft (probably late in the draft). But it might be tough to retain them both. So I would say that if it came down to picking between the two, I would take Golston on a one year contract.
Tim Hightower
The Redskins need to bring in a veteran at RB, and because of the nature of Hightower's injury (knee), I would think of his 2012 prospects more as a two position backups (RB and FB) rather than a guy who can carry a load in any one of the 17 weeks of the season. That does fit what the Redskins want to due in terms of featuring Royster and Helu. The good thing about Hightower is that he'll be inexpensive on the cap, and he won't prevent the Redskins from adding a RB they really like in the draft. They can keep four RBs if the fourth RB is Tim Hightower.
The argument against offering Hightower a one year contract is that he might not be the best guy for the job available. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown, and Cadillac Williams are better players and could be just as available. Mike Tolbert will come with more of a financial investment, but if you're looking for a two position backup, he's a better fit. Earnest Graham might be looking for a new destination. Just an athlete who can line up in or out of the backfield and can threaten defenses. What the Redskins really 'need' is a matchup nightmare or moveable chess piece. The Redskins were interested in Darren Sproles before the 2010 season when the Chargers reluctantly decided to tender him.
Unfortunately, there are no players like that in this free agent RB class. The closest player may be Jerious Norwood or Justin Forsett. It's more likely the Redskins give Steve Slaton a shot, though that would not be a good decision giving Kyle Shanahan's history of favoring Slaton over much better runners.
Rex Grossman
The Redskins would be better off with Rex Grossman back in the fold in 2012, but one thing they cannot do is guarantee his 2012 salary to have him. There is talk of the Redskins picking two quarterbacks in the draft, and I think they will sign a veteran. That's three guys added to the roster. While I wouldn't be in a hurry to turn over absolutely everything about the position on the Redskins, Grossman's value to the team in 2012 comes only if they 1) avoid the free agent market for QBs, or 2) have a rookie as a third stringer. Grossman does no good on the roster as the third quarterback.
The Redskins can budget $3 to $4 million in the cap for a backup QB (or starter in some cases where the no. 2 guy is a rookie second round draft choice). That should outbid all other offers for Grossman, making Washington the only place Grossman could win the starters job as well as the place offering him the most money.
Darrion Scott/Keyaron Fox
Should be added to the 80 man roster. Fox is an excellent insurance policy for a long Fletcher injury, and probably should have been playing instead of Rocky McIntosh while the Redskins prepared Perry Riley for the job.
Rocky McIntosh
I would not even tender Rocky McIntosh (or Kentwan Balmer, or Donte Stallworth) a contract on the 80 man roster. It is time to move on. no comments
Defensive Front Seven (unrestricted free agency year): NT Barry Cofield (2017), DT Stephen Bowen (2016), DT Jarvis Jenkins (2015), NT Chris Neild (2015), LB Ryan Kerrigan (2016), LB Markus White (2015), LB Brian Orakpo (2014), LB Perry Riley (2014) LB Lorenzo Alexander (2013), LB Rob Jackson (2013)
This is a remarkably efficient group of contracts, making the defensive front seven the strength of the Washington Redskins organization in more ways than one. Now, quite obviously, this group is missing it's leader in the middle of the defense: that's free agent stalwart London Fletcher. And the Redskins have to find a way to get consistently stronger and deeper in the front three. So this is not an area of the team that is without it's needs. But it's already a strength of the team and has the potential to get even stronger.
Because there are no termination risks in this group with regards to the 2012 season (a remarkable state really for a sizable portion of the roster), I'll instead look at two potential scenarios that won't be relevant until a year from now (at least): if the Redskins need to get away from either the Barry Cofield contract or the Stephen Bowen contract after the 2012 season.
The release (cap) fee for Barry Cofield will always be equal to $2.284 million times the amount of years left on the contract. There would be four years remaining on the contract after 2012 (=$9.136 million). As always, the Redskins can choose to take that all in the current year, or to take $2.284 million in the current year (in this example, 2013) and take the remaining $6.85 million on the cap in year N+1 (in this example, 2014). Cofield's base salaries (plus roster bonuses) in those two seasons are equal to $6.55 million (2013), and $4.55 million (2014). There's a complication with that roster bonus in 2013, as it was clearly designed in the contract to prevent the team for exercising all of it's cap flexibility with regards to the non-guaranteed portion of the contract. The Redskins can avoid paying Cofield the roster bonus, but doing so would force them to eat $9 million on the 2013 cap to not have Cofield, which essentially functions to guarantee the third year of the contract (and the roster bonus).
The Bowen contract is much simpler. The amortized cap bonus per year for Stephen Bowen is $1.5 million. There will be three years remaining on the contract after 2012, meaning that the total remaining cap hit is $4.5 million. The Redskins would have the option to take a $4.5 million cap hit in 2013, or take a $1.5 million cap hit in 2013 and a $3 million cap hit in 2014. Bowen's salaries in those two seasons are $3.9 million and $4.4 million, meaning that the Redskins can opt to save cap money both years, or wipe the committment from the books in 2013 (with a net cap cost of $600k). The bottom line is that the Bowen contract is much more team-friendly to the Redskins than the Cofield contract.
Hopefully, Cofield and Bowen are dominant enough to represent the Redskins in Honolulu in 2012, and none of this is even remotely an issue next year.
Secondary (unresticted free agency year): O.J. Atogwe (2016), DeJon Gomes (2015), DeAngelo Hall (2014), Josh Wilson (2014), Reed Doughty (2014), Byron Westbrook (2013), Kevin Barnes (2013)
Doughty, Westbrook, and Barnes all enter 2012 in a fight to keep their roster spots. The cap ramifications of parting with any of those guys is not significant. Josh Wilson will be back next year and looks like a virtual lock to play out his three year contract with the Redskins. This analysis will focus on two of the other guys on this list who did not perform well in 2011.
O.J. Atogwe's contract was essentially structured as a glorified one year guaranteed contract, and with the way he played in 2011 (up and down, always injured), it's really difficult to see him being back next year. He's not particularly expensive on the cap if the Redskins decide to keep him around for 2012 with a reasonable $3.4 million salary, but the Redskins can probably do better for that money. Atogwe's remaing cap cost is $1.6 million, meaning the Redskins can actually save some cap dollars by releasing him just one year into a five year deal, which is practically unheard of. Atogwe's agent knew that the terms of this deal paid the safety handsomely in 2011 (just under $10 million dollars for one year of work), but that the Redskins essentially now hold four one-year team options on the veteran safety. This WASN'T a good contract for the Redskins, but now that the expensive first year is history, it has become an asset of sorts.
Back in 2010, the Redskins leveraged the uncapped season to make a guaranteed money dump for DeAngelo Hall and for Albert Haynesworth, driving the cap dollars up (and screwing with the franchise tag process!) through the roof, and making the contract very manageable for the rest of the time he is under team control. In doing so, the Redskins opted to move a ton of extra (unlikey to ever be paid) money into the last year of the contract, making the sixth year of Hall's deal (2014) pretty much a dummy year (cap value = $24 million). More relevant to the current discusion, the Redskins will need to make a decision on Hall for 2012. Hall's salaries these next two years are $6.8 million and $8.3 million. His remaining release fee is an astonishly low $600k, due only to the $1.5 million signing bonus he got on the day he signed the contract in 2009. The Redskins can save $6 million in 2012 by parting ways with Hall. In other words, if you keep him at that cap value, he needs to be playing every defensive snap. If he isn't valuable to you in that way, now is a good time to get rid of him, re: cap concerns.
The bigger concern on the defensive side of the ball is getting new contracts for players like LaRon Landry, London Fletcher, and Adam Carriker. Contractually, there are a couple of straight forward decisions to be made on existing contracts such as Atogwe and Hall, but the Redskins aren't hurting for the immediate cap dollars, and rest assured that no matter how the team chooses to spin it, a release of either of those two players will be a "football decision."
Next week, I will look at the impending Redskins free agents, as well as the available cap space, with some guesses on how much space and how much activity we are in for as we head into Offseason 2012. no comments
Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III formally declared for the 2012 NFL Draft and the hearts of Washington Redskins fans are all a-flutter.
Cool your jets.
The Redskins face such long odds to land RG3 that it is unlikely to happen.
You can thank the Atlanta Falcons for that. Atlanta traded five Draft picks to the Cleveland Browns to position their selection of Alabama WR Julio Jones. The result is that Cleveland has the ammunition to outbid any offer the Redskins might make to move up in the Draft.
But, you don't come here to read about obstacles. You want to read about the possibilities. So here is a piece of hope. The teams ahead of the Redskins are in a real flux that might grant Redskins fans their fondest wish—a rookie quarterback with franchise potential who will perform for the team for a decade.
Look at the teams making the first five Draft picks.
1. Indianapolis Colts - Owner Jim Irsay fired team president Bill Polian and GM Chris Polian and named Ryan Grigson as the new GM. Grigson must decide whether to keep head coach Jim Caldwell and untangle a salary cap mess that includes Peyton Manning's contract. The Colts owe Manning a $28 million bonus on March 8.
Irsay has said that Manning would end his career as a Colt. There are whispers of disputes between Irsay and Polian about Manning's role when the Colts draft Andrew Luck. Could that mean that the Colts would not select Luck? That is unlikely, but one team isn't big enough for both Manning and Luck despite Irsay's fondest wish. Manning would draw interest from the Browns, Redskins or the Miami Dolphins. The New York Jets are rumored to have an interest. Manning would have a large say in where he goes and would undoubtedly prefer the Dolphins or Jets to the Browns or Redskins.
2. St. Louis Rams - With vacancies at head coach and general manager, the Rams are a mystery. In all probability, the new executive team will be charged with making quarterback Sam Bradford a better player. Anything is possible with a new front office, including the appeal of Stanford's Andrew Luck to sell tickets to a Los Angeles (ahem) fan base. The Rams have as many needs as the Colts. With as many as nine teams in need of a franchise quarterback, the Rams are the target to leapfrog the Browns. The Browns will strive to keep that from happening.
If the Colts bypass Luck, the Rams may pounce. They are a threat to draft and keep Robert Griffin III and rebuff all trade offers. Bradford could be a nice consolation prize that would draw as much interest as RG3.
Optimum Scouting has the Rams selecting WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma). DC Pro Sports Report has OT Matt Kalil (USC).
3. Minnesota Vikings - With many team needs, the Vikings would welcome trade offers for their draft spot from teams looking to make a preemptive strike for Griffin 3rd ahead of the Browns. All Minnesota needs to do is answer the phone...that won't start ringing until Draft Day right after St. Louis makes their move.
The Draft sites see the Vikings selecting Kalil or Blackmon if they use their pick.
4. Cleveland Browns - Browns President Mike Holmgren is intent on a quarterback competition to set the 2012 starter. Griffin 3rd would fall to Cleveland in the natural order of events. Sixty-two percent of the mocks tracked by DCPSR see it that way. Per Wikipedia, "Atlanta had traded five draft picks to the Cleveland Browns to move up into their spot and take Jones, giving up their 27th, 59th, and 124th picks from the 2011 draft, and their first and fourth round picks from the 2012 draft." Mana from heaven to Holmgren who believes in building through the Draft.
Cleveland can package its two remaining picks from Atlanta with one of their own to move to the head of the class. That's playing with house money.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Raheem Morris paid the extreme price for the collapse of his team. The Bucs are young. Their prospects are thought to be bright. Their biggest problem might have been failure to cope with success. Morris and the Buccaneers lost every game after their emotionally satisfying win at home over long time nemesis New Orleans. Kids! What are you gonna do?
Tampa Bay isn't looking to replace quarterback Josh Freemen. They want him to play better. The smart people who follow these things think the Bucs will take OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) or CB Morris Claiborne (LSU). They could get calls on Draft Day from teams looking to jump Washington if RG3 slips past Cleveland.
6. Washington Redskins - If Rex Grossman threw half the number of interception last season, his resulting 83.0 QB passer rating would still be the lowest in the NFC East. Safe to say that no one will ever again buy Grossman's claim that Washington can take the division, especially if he is the starter. It's also safe to say the Redskins will have a revenue problem if Grossman is the starter next season. Mike Shanahan has all of his Draft picks to work with to move up or down. Here's a bonus, Washington gets to use the fourth round pick they got for Jason Campbell.
8. Miami Dolphins - Miami is the biggest threat after Cleveland to preempt a Redskins' bid to move up for Griffin 3rd. Team owner Stephen Ross wants to make a big splash by landing a big name coach and a big name and a big name quarterback. These sentiments are vaguely familiar. Oh yeah, they are early Daniel Snyder. Ross' aggression will upset the orderly market for NFL talent and will unhinge Washington's attempts to move up for Luck or Griffin.
The offseason is the game between the seasons with all the drama, risks, intrigues and rewards of any game. Teams that win on the field win the offseason. I love this time of year. Can't wait for the 2012 Draft Day Party at FedEx Field.
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The Washington Redskins hired ex-Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris to be the new defensive backfield coach, according to The Washington Post and other media outlets. Why hire the head coach of a 4-12 team with the 21st-ranked passing defense? Perhaps the prior relationship with 'Skins GM Bruce Allen many have something to do with it. Allen was Tampa Bay's GM before signing with the Redskins. Morris also worked with Redskins offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan when both were on Gruden's Buccaneers coaching staff.
Morris was Tampa Bay's defensive backfield coach for four seasons. He replaced Monte Kiffen as defensive coordinator in 2008 than Tampa Bay promoted him to head coach in 2009 replacing Jon Gruden. He has a 17-31-0 record as head coach.
The Redskins released safeties coach Stephen Jackson and wide receivers coach Keenan McCardell in related moves.
Jackson was controversial in his early tenure with Washington. Gregg Williams brought Jackson to the defensive coaching staff when he converted the secondary to the Tampa-2 set. Newly signed, and at the time highest paid, safety Adam Archuleta fared poorly in that scheme. Star safety Sean Taylor regressed in his development under Jackson. There are whispers that the two did not get along. But Jackson survived the turmoil from the Joe Gibbs coaching staff until Mike Shanahan's.
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Oh goody, I thought when I heard that the Washington Redskins coaching staff would tutor the South players in the 2012 Senior Bowl on January 28. Mike and Kyle Shanahan would get the first, up close look at Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin 3rd and other playmaking skill players the Redskins desperately need.
Not so fast there, cowboy.
My friend Eric Galko (never met him, exchanged tweets) of Optimum Scouting burst my bubble. Juniors are not eligible to play in the Senior Bowl. Andrew Luck and Griffin 3rd are redshirt juniors and the game is not called the Junior-Senior Bowl.
That is Shanahan's loss (and ours), but also a loss for the Senior Bowl and the East-West Shrine Game played on January 21. Neither Andrew Luck nor RG3, if he indeed declares for the 2102 NFL Draft, will ever play in those games because the Bowls' own rules conspire against them.
Come on people. It's the 21st Century. The Bowls bill themselves as a preview of NFL Draft prospects, a sort of prep school for the pros. They have enough of a partnership** with the league to guess which undergrads will go high in the Draft. The word "undergrad" should not apply to athletes who have, you know, graduated.
Both the Senior Bowl and the Shrine Game are leaving money on the table by depriving the viewing audience of Draft-eligible undergrads like Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.
Mike Shanahan is a loser too. Working out Luck or Griffin would help him decide how hard to push a move up in the Draft to get them...or not.
As it stands now, here are the highest rated senior quarterbacks and wide receivers likely to play in one of the Bowls. We show their projected Draft round in (parenthesis).
Quarterbacks
1. Ryan Tennehill, Texas A&M (1-2)
2. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State, (2-3)
3. Kellen Moore, Boise State, (6-7)
Wide Receivers
1. Kendall Wright, Baylor (1)
2. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame (1-2)
3. Dwight Jones, North Carolina (2-3)
Here's an idea. If the Redskins cannot get Griffin, why not go for his playmaking wide receiver Kendall Wright? Just saying....
** The NFL names the coaching staffs for both sides of the Senior Bowl and for the East-West Shrine Game. Both games are broadcast on the NFL Network.
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Optimum Scouting Draft Rankings, All Positions.
CBSSports.com Draft Rankings.
DC Pro Sports Report Mock Draft tracker.
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General Manager Bruce Allen is always going to prefer deals with veterans over big-money extensions for existing Redskins that was his M.O. in Oakland, and later in Tampa Bay. While every organzation prefers to use the draft to acquire talent because the draft is a vehicle to acquire cheaply that has a lot of upside, the draft is limited in the resources it can provide a team because the picks are finite. For the Redskins to be a truly well run organization under Allen, they are always going to be a veteran team. There's just no way around that. If the Redskins wanted to become a young, hungry team that uses only the draft and bargain basement signings to win games, they would have hired someone from Green Bay or Indianapolis to run their team.
Suffice it to say, no matter how well the Redskins continue to do in the draft, it will be the personnel moves that they make in free agency and via trades (as well as within their own roster) that will determine how successful they will be under this regime. Unfortunately, they have not been all that successful thus far in building with veterans (they've actually been more sucessful in the draft under Shanahan), which is why we haven't seen a meaningful turnaround just yet.
The Washington Redskins will return 37 players under contract next year (this does not include any players signed to futures contracts). This article will analyze those contracts on the offensive side of the ball, identify those players, discuss potential candidates for release, and examine holes within the existing roster.
The Redskins 'Under Contract'
Offensive Skill Talent (unrestricted free agency year): QB John Beck (2013), RB Darrel Young (2014), RB Roy Helu (2015), RB Evan Royster (2015), WR Santana Moss (2014), WR Jabar Gaffney (2013), WR Anthony Armstrong (2014), WR Brandon Banks (2014), WR Leonard Hankerson (2015), WR Niles Paul (2015), WR Aldrick Robinson (2016), TE Chris Cooley (2014), TE Mike Sellers (2015), TE Logan Paulsen (2014)
The biggest issue here is that Fred Davis is a free agent. Santana Moss is also a very obvious candidate for release, while Mike Sellers' retirement (forced or unforced) may well be a formality at this point. Chris Cooley's future is also worth discussing, those my expecation is that he will be back and more productive than last season, though Cooley now has two lost seasons in the last three years after making the pro bowl in consecutive years.
Santana Moss' contract was clearly structured with the idea of him being on the team in 2012 and 2013, and holding essentially a team option for 2014. If the Redskins release Moss this offseason, they can save $6.75 million of his $15.05 million contract, making the 2011 committment a one year/$8.3 million deal. The franchise tender would have cost the Redskins more than that, but would have arguably allocated the cap better. Again though, the expectation when the team signed the deal is that Moss would be back next season, and the only thing that will prevent that is if Moss is believed to be not worth his roster spot anymore. If Moss is released, he will cost $4.33 million on the salary cap for 2013, which is more than he would cost on the cap if the Redskins kept him. If he is released with a June 1st designation, Moss costs $2.17 on the salary cap this year (slightly less than he currently does), but will count another $2.17 million in 2013. Either way, the Redskins still owe $4.33 million on the cap to Moss. If the Redskins keep Moss for 2013, they still owe that cap money, but will also be on the hook for his salary (reported in two different places as $2.6 million or $3.1 million), which would raise their total committment in Moss to $11 million dollars for two seasons. This was not a good contract for the Redskins.
Mike Sellers' cap hit will be just $300,000 whenever he is released. There is no reason to designate him with a June 1, but if they did, the Redskins would be on the hook for $200,000 in 2013 cap room. Who cares? Sellers is due to make $1.045 million next season, meaning the Redskins can save the cost of two late round draft choices or one vet minimum player if they move on without him. With Sellers, this isn't a money issue, it's an issue with a roster spot.
Chris Cooley's contract is a bit confusing. Cooley is owed just over $4.5 million in signing bonus money (which has already been paid to him, just not allocated on the cap) from his 2007 contract extension. He also is owed a roster bonus of $100,000 each of his last two seasons which the Redskins can opt to pay if they release him. Cooley is owed $7.65 million in salary ($7.85 including roster bonuses) over the last two years of the contract, spread pretty evenly. The Redskins can save $1.7 on the cap by releasing Cooley, or they can release him with a June first designation, saving about $4 million, and then would be on the hook for the final $2.27 million or so next season. The Cooley extension was not particularly well structured by Vinny Cerrato, and I think he's likely to be back in 2012.
Offensive Line (unrestricted free agency year): OG Kory Lichtensteiger (2013), OT Trent Williams (2015), OT Jammal Brown (2016), OG Chris Chester (2016), OG Maurice Hurt (2015), OT Willie Smith (2015), Erik Cook (2015)
Left Guard Kory Lichtensteiger's 2-yr contract with the Redskins that he signed in January 2010 has expired, but because Lichtensteiger was not on a team's active roster in 2009, he can be retained by the Redskins as a restricted free agent, and furthermore, remains a rare candidate for a contract extension. When you look at that offensive line situation, you can see that outside of Lichtensteiger, the Redskins have practically no contract issues on the front line. Will Montgomery is an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, having accrued a season with the Panthers, and now three with the Redskins. He is likely to return.
The bigger issue on the offensive line is that Jammal Brown is an obvious candidate for release, and that it's not inconcievable that the Redskins could look to upgrade Chris Chester if they can find the right opportunity at RG. Chester will certainly be on the team (and probably in the starting lineup) next season, though he's a bit out of place at RG. Chester may end up being the long term solution at left guard if something happens to Lichtensteiger or the Redskins lose him in free agency after this year. He is also a possibility to move to center. Once Brown is gone (if he is gone) the Redskins will have just two OTs under contract: Williams and Smith, and they may have a crisis at the position if they do not already.
Brown will cost $2 million more on the salary cap to release than keep, or the Redskins could use their June 1st designation on him, saving them $2 million on the cap in 2012, but putting the Redskins on the hook for $3.9 million in cap space in 2013. Neither option is particularly harmful if the Redskins decide Brown isn't going to be a part of their future. The Redskins can save $19.25 million on Jammal Brown's $27.5 million contract by releasing him this offseason, which would essentally take his reported $5/27.5 deal and make it a one year/$8.25 million commitment. That is a lot of money for Jammal Brown, sure, but it's also a little less than the Redskins would have paid him if they had slapped the franchise tag on him last season. That is money that a contract savvy team will save when writing deals, and the difference between a contract savvy team and a talent savvy team is that the contract savvy team will find a way to structure the contract so that the team saves money whether the player works out or not, and the talent savvy team will acquire a better starting RT than Jammal Brown.
To be continued tomorrow...the defensive contracts. no comments
Shish! The Washington Redskins have lunch with former Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris and everybody has Morris drawn, quartered hired and changing the Redskins defensive strategies.
It was just lunch, people. The only ones who should be stressed over the event are incumbent coaches Bob Slowic (defensive backs) and Steve Jackson (safeties). I know it would worry me if my boss were having lunch with someone else to discuss my job. That implies that decisions have already been made.
I hope that Executive Vice President Mike Shanahan had the compassion to inform those guys where they stand with the team. Management transparency is hard, but always for the best.
The lunch meeting with Morris did not have to be about a coaching vacancy—although a good interview question might be, "How would you have coached a Pro Bowl performance from Carlos Rogers while he was with Washington?"
Tampa Bay has the fifth pick in the 2012 NFL Draft; that's immediately ahead of the Redskins. So tell me, Raheem, are the Bucs more likely to move up in the Draft order in a grab for Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin 3rd, or to stay put?
Morris left Washington for an interview with the Minnesota Vikings, who have the third pick in the Draft. The Vikings describe the talks as exploratory about a high-level defensive position. There are no, yet, vacancies on Minnesota's coaching staff.
I will bet you a pocket of pennies that Morris visits Cleveland, who holds the fourth pick and are a real threat to grab RG3, for more exploration.
This is all conjecture, of course, but Shanahan had better not fire any coaches before the Draft if he wants to keep secrets from Minnesota, Cleveland or Tampa Bay.
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Our friends at DC Pro Sports Report tracked 41 more Mock Drafts on their board for a total to date of 174 Mocks. The sports writers who do these things see Robert Griffin III more firmly in Cleveland than in Washington. The total mocks that put RG3 in Ashburn dropped to 27 percent from about 34 percent when last I checked. The mockers see Alabama RB Trent Richardson or OK State WR Justin Blackmon falling to Washington. Warren Moon compares Blackmon to Dez Bryant, only better.
Mike Shanahan bargain hunts for running backs. It's how he rolls. I don't see him spending a first round pick on a rusher. A wide-out with playmaker potential is another story.
